The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +29.2%Factory New -7.7%Field-Tested +21.9%Minimal Wear +23.3%Well-Worn +7.9%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Royal Baroque

3x $1.40

Yeti Camo

2x $1.87

Reef Grief

1x $2.18

Blush Pour

1x $1.67

Shredded

2x $1.78

Arsenic Spill

1x $2.18

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

30.0% $38.92

Mulberry

13.3% $33.42

Glitched Paint

13.3% $17.44

Bleeding Edge

13.3% $16.98

Royal Guard

30.0% $13.94

Max Win

$38.92 (+92.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$24.90 (+23.3%)

Win %

43.3%

Volatility

+54.4%

Cost

$20.19

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $20.19

Ask Price EV $24.90 (+23.3%)

Bid Price EV $22.91 (+13.5%)

Ask Profit $4.71 (+23.3%)

Bid Profit $2.72 (+13.5%)

Liquidity Gap $2.00 (+9.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.71

Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.72

Risk

Win Probability 43.3%

Loss Probability 56.7%

Best Case $38.92 (+92.8%)

Worst Case $13.94 (-30.9%)

Volatility +54.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$17.04

Avg Loss -$4.71

Bottom 5% Outcome $13.94 (-30.9%)

Std Dev $10.98

Avg Norm Float 0.0933

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 139h 59m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.40 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Minimal Wear

$1.87 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Minimal Wear

$1.92 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.18 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Factory New

$3.96 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Minimal Wear

$1.67 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Factory New

$1.78 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Factory New

$1.79 Float: HIDDEN

AWP | Arsenic Spill

—

Factory New

$2.18 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 09S //TOTAL COST $20.19 //ASK PRICE EV $24.90 //BID PRICE EV $22.91 //ASK PROFIT $4.71 (+23.3%) //BID PROFIT $2.72 (+13.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 43.3% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +54.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.0699825,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
      "optimistic_value": 38.81,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 34.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.055986,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 13.943999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 13.86,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 13.24,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:18.911301Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.0699825,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 33.418,
      "optimistic_value": 33.25,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 31.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06251770000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 17.435,
      "optimistic_value": 17.4,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 16.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:09.181238Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.055986,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 16.977,
      "optimistic_value": 16.83,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 16.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_423cebef679159c946bba1ff",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "498354037509124375",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:46.944586Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:46.944586Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "490472790736661991",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:47.745051Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "493850490549146908",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:47.745051Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "528753387757393641",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.346295Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "640216044966789251",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.67,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "505109323870506140",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.78,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "499479989896313401",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.79,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "500605889841179615",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
      "listing_id": "500605889841233903",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
      "name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:25.005971Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.06 +29.2%	56.7%	+74.6%	$3.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.02 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.48	$18.08 +101.5%	$10.93 +21.9%	43.3%	+63.8%	$8.97	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Mulberry 13.3% $5.01 Glitched Paint 13.3% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26	$6.93 +96.3%	$3.81 +7.9%	43.3%	+66.5%	$3.53	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.28	$6.94 +132.2%	$4.03 +34.7%	61.7%	+62.7%	$2.99	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.03 +32.7%	60.0%	+67.3%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.22 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26	$6.94 +124.7%	$4.05 +30.9%	58.3%	+71.2%	$3.09	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.28	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.08 +29.8%	55.0%	+78.6%	$3.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49	$18.08 +130.6%	$9.76 +24.5%	35.0%	+61.5%	$7.84	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61	$38.92 +84.1%	$25.90 +22.5%	48.3%	+58.2%	$21.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.61	$38.92 +85.9%	$25.54 +21.9%	46.7%	+56.9%	$20.94	—
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.66 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.49	$18.08 +122.3%	$9.87 +21.4%	36.7%	+62.9%	$8.13	—