The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items

Battle-Scarred +29.2%Factory New -7.7%Field-Tested +21.9%Minimal Wear +23.3%Well-Worn +7.9%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested

Inputs

Royal Baroque

1x $0.39

Mint Fan

4x $0.61

Reef Grief

1x $1.31

Blush Pour

1x $0.65

Rose Hex

2x $0.82

Red Tide

1x $1.04

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

30.0% $18.08

Mulberry

13.3% $15.94

Glitched Paint

13.3% $7.02

Royal Guard

30.0% $5.73

Bleeding Edge

13.3% $5.48

Max Win

$18.08 (+101.5%)

EV (ROI %)

$10.93 (+21.9%)

Win %

43.3%

Volatility

+63.8%

Cost

$8.97

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $8.97

Ask Price EV $10.93 (+21.9%)

Bid Price EV $9.55 (+6.4%)

Ask Profit $1.96 (+21.9%)

Bid Profit $0.58 (+6.4%)

Liquidity Gap $1.39 (+15.4%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.96

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.58

Risk

Win Probability 43.3%

Loss Probability 56.7%

Best Case $18.08 (+101.5%)

Worst Case $5.48 (-38.9%)

Volatility +63.8%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 43.3%

Avg Win +$8.45

Avg Loss -$3.00

Bottom 5% Outcome $5.48 (-38.9%)

Std Dev $5.73

Avg Norm Float 0.1997

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 25m

Oldest Output Price 139h 9m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.00 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.09 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.19 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Minimal Wear

$1.31 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Field-Tested

$0.65 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Minimal Wear

$0.82 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Minimal Wear

$0.87 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Red Tide

—

Minimal Wear

$1.04 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 18S //TOTAL COST $8.97 //ASK PRICE EV $10.93 //BID PRICE EV $9.55 //ASK PROFIT $1.96 (+21.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.58 (+6.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 43.3% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +63.8% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14974500000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 18.0765,
      "optimistic_value": 17.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 15.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.119796,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 5.7275,
      "optimistic_value": 5.64,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 5.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:10:14.842875Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14974500000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 15.9415,
      "optimistic_value": 15.91,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 14.54,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.1337722,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 7.0205,
      "optimistic_value": 6.94,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 6.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:46.620683Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.119796,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 5.4815000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 5.45,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 5.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:06.459968Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_423cebef679159c946bba1ff",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "512990789044788503",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:07.694348Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "514116636507281046",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:17.919499Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "508487189339839862",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:09.576527Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.09,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "520872088106430672",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:09.576527Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "625579418032572382",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:09.576527Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017718303094",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:54.161430Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "526501535293744649",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:42.904375Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.82,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "527627435179438172",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:43.559077Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "491598638255524202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:55:43.559077Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.04,
      "skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
      "listing_id": "508487189339664218",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P250 | Red Tide",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:19.661860Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.06 +29.2%	56.7%	+74.6%	$3.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Mulberry 13.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 13.3% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.94	$38.92 +92.8%	$24.90 +23.3%	43.3%	+54.4%	$20.19	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Mulberry 13.3% $5.01 Glitched Paint 13.3% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26	$6.93 +96.3%	$3.81 +7.9%	43.3%	+66.5%	$3.53	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.28	$6.94 +132.2%	$4.03 +34.7%	61.7%	+62.7%	$2.99	—
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.03 +32.7%	60.0%	+67.3%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.22 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26	$6.94 +124.7%	$4.05 +30.9%	58.3%	+71.2%	$3.09	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.28	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.08 +29.8%	55.0%	+78.6%	$3.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49	$18.08 +130.6%	$9.76 +24.5%	35.0%	+61.5%	$7.84	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61	$38.92 +84.1%	$25.90 +22.5%	48.3%	+58.2%	$21.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.61	$38.92 +85.9%	$25.54 +21.9%	46.7%	+56.9%	$20.94	—
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.66 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.49	$18.08 +122.3%	$9.87 +21.4%	36.7%	+62.9%	$8.13	—