The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Snow Splash
1x $0.09
Aeolian Dark
1x $0.12
Robin's Egg
2x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.14
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.17
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.13
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
The Daily Deagle
5.0% $2.21
Reef Grief
16.0% $2.04
Yeti Camo
16.0% $1.78
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $1.16
Max Win
$3.13 (+89.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.95 (+18.2%)
Win %
69.0%
Volatility
+47.5%
Cost
$1.65
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.65
Ask Price EV $1.95 (+18.2%)
Bid Price EV $1.87 (+13.4%)
Ask Profit $0.30 (+18.2%)
Bid Profit $0.22 (+13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.30
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 69.0%
Loss Probability 31.0%
Best Case $3.13 (+89.9%)
Worst Case $0.72 (-56.3%)
Volatility +47.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 31.0%
Avg Win +$0.74
Avg Loss -$0.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-56.3%)
Std Dev $0.78
Avg Norm Float 0.1161
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 22m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 15S //TOTAL COST $1.65 //ASK PRICE EV $1.95 //BID PRICE EV $1.87 //ASK PROFIT $0.30 (+18.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.22 (+13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 69.0% //BEST CASE $3.13 //VOLATILITY +47.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.13
+$1.48
+89.9%
$3.05
+$1.40
+84.8%
$0.08
2.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.64
+$0.99
+60.2%
$2.62
+$0.97
+58.8%
$0.02
0.9%
—
WIN
5.0%
$2.21
+$0.56
+33.8%
$2.19
+$0.54
+32.7%
$0.02
0.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.04
+$0.39
+23.6%
$2.00
+$0.35
+21.2%
$0.04
2.0%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$1.78
+$0.13
+8.1%
$1.61
-$0.04
-2.4%
$0.17
9.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.16
-$0.49
-29.5%
$1.04
-$0.61
-37.0%
$0.12
10.7%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$0.88
-$0.77
-46.6%
$0.85
-$0.80
-48.5%
$0.03
3.5%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$0.75
-$0.90
-54.7%
$0.71
-$0.94
-57.0%
$0.04
5.0%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$0.72
-$0.93
-56.3%
$0.66
-$0.99
-60.0%
$0.06
8.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1335,
"optimistic_value": 3.13,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:02.019867Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.081242,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.784,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:21.722838Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.075439,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.164,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:10.385171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:47.241816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.04,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.092848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.881,
"optimistic_value": 0.86,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0673148,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2070000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:01.492072Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.087045,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.456128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.075439,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.721,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.260836Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_422c2c366bc19c2427142691",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "503983642533630511",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:30.016623Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "490472843633372619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:35.613129Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "501731842661881121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:27:38.467650Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542380388916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:38.292801Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:27:38.467650Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:32:11.610210Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:43.856765Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:06.436420Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:06.436420Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:06.436420Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.19 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.05 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 12.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $0.97 | $1.83 +129.3% | $0.98 +22.4% | 70.0% | +38.4% | $0.80 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.16 Reef Grief 10.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 10.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.97 | $1.78 +128.7% | $0.91 +16.5% | 62.5% | +38.0% | $0.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.19 Reef Grief 8.0% $1.09 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 8.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.97 | $1.83 +108.5% | $0.99 +12.9% | 70.0% | +28.0% | $0.88 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.16 Reef Grief 6.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 6.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.91 | $1.78 +107.4% | $0.93 +8.3% | 65.0% | +25.6% | $0.86 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough  40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard  10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock  40.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +157.9% | $9.16 +30.7% | 50.0% | +63.3% | $7.01 | — |