The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
1x $0.34
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.41
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
Sour Grapes
2x $0.30
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.37
Rose Nacre
1x $0.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
16.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.10
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.65
Creep
5.0% $2.38
The Daily Deagle
5.0% $2.24
Max Win
$4.46 (-25.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.82 (-52.7%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+13.4%
Cost
$5.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.96
Ask Price EV $2.82 (-52.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.78 (-53.3%)
Ask Profit $-3.14 (-52.7%)
Bid Profit $-3.18 (-53.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.18
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-25.2%)
Worst Case $1.92 (-67.8%)
Volatility +13.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 100.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$3.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.92 (-67.8%)
Std Dev $0.80
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 11h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 44S //TOTAL COST $5.96 //ASK PRICE EV $2.82 //BID PRICE EV $2.78 //ASK PROFIT $-3.14 (-52.7%) //BID PROFIT $-3.18 (-53.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +13.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
16.0%
$4.46
-$1.50
-25.2%
$4.43
-$1.53
-25.7%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.10
-$2.86
-48.0%
$3.05
-$2.91
-48.8%
$0.05
1.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.66
-$3.30
-55.3%
$2.64
-$3.32
-55.7%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.65
-$3.31
-55.5%
$2.62
-$3.34
-56.0%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.38
-$3.58
-60.0%
$2.34
-$3.62
-60.7%
$0.04
1.8%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.24
-$3.72
-62.5%
$2.19
-$3.77
-63.3%
$0.05
2.1%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.11
-$3.85
-64.5%
$2.10
-$3.86
-64.8%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.05
-$3.91
-65.6%
$2.00
-$3.96
-66.4%
$0.05
2.3%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$1.92
-$4.04
-67.8%
$1.86
-$4.10
-68.8%
$0.06
3.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:51.253810Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04548050000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.6635,
"optimistic_value": 2.66,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:38.097180Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:41.324860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.0475,
"optimistic_value": 2.03,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:31.285122Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.055976000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3835,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:26.986188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.040582599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2375000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:06.697131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0524775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.1135,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.197419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04548050000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.9169999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.91,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:38.822266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_422c2c366bc19c2427142691",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "525375740886605155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:54.226090Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "527627487624374612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:10.461744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:24:08.879784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:24:08.879784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "502857689861463832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:30.497061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:30.497061Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521998040963395662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:45.677087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "515242641502659517",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:28.519021Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "497228243055998765",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:55.680730Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "528753221919408945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:24:09.767206Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 16.0% $3.10 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.65 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $2.24 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.71 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 | $3.10 +86.7% | $1.93 +16.5% | 69.0% | +38.8% | $1.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.70 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.19 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.01 Reef Grief 12.0% $0.98 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $0.91 | $1.70 +114.9% | $0.95 +20.1% | 70.0% | +35.0% | $0.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.70 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 10.0% $1.01 Reef Grief 10.0% $0.98 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.91 | $1.70 +95.2% | $1.00 +14.6% | 62.5% | +26.3% | $0.87 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.77 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.19 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 8.0% $1.05 Reef Grief 8.0% $0.98 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.91 | $1.77 +105.9% | $0.97 +12.8% | 70.0% | +27.7% | $0.86 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.70 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 6.0% $1.01 Reef Grief 6.0% $0.98 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.91 | $1.70 +102.1% | $0.93 +10.3% | 65.0% | +23.8% | $0.84 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough  45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard  5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock  45.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +168.2% | $8.83 +31.0% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $6.74 | — |