The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Mainframe
3x $0.06
Cold Fusion
2x $0.07
Coral Paisley
1x $0.05
Calligrafaux
3x $0.08
Picnic
1x $0.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
12.5% $2.60
Sky Mandala
12.5% $1.77
Earth Mandala
12.5% $1.20
Warm Blooded
12.5% $1.05
Acheron
12.5% $1.03
Facility Negative
12.5% $0.48
Max Win
$2.60 (+186.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.12 (+22.8%)
Win %
62.5%
Volatility
+78.5%
Cost
$0.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.91
Ask Price EV $1.12 (+22.8%)
Bid Price EV $1.00 (+9.5%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+22.8%)
Bid Profit $0.09 (+9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+13.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.09
Risk
Win Probability 62.5%
Loss Probability 37.5%
Best Case $2.60 (+186.1%)
Worst Case $0.39 (-57.1%)
Volatility +78.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 37.5%
Avg Win +$0.62
Avg Loss -$0.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.39 (-57.1%)
Std Dev $0.71
Avg Norm Float 0.2108
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 18h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 34S //TOTAL COST $0.91 //ASK PRICE EV $1.12 //BID PRICE EV $1.00 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+22.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.09 (+9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.5% //BEST CASE $2.60 //VOLATILITY +78.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.60
+$1.69
+186.1%
$2.37
+$1.46
+160.4%
$0.23
9.0%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$1.77
+$0.86
+94.3%
$1.56
+$0.65
+71.4%
$0.21
11.8%
—
WIN
12.5%
$1.20
+$0.29
+31.6%
$1.01
+$0.10
+11.0%
$0.19
15.7%
—
WIN
12.5%
$1.05
+$0.14
+15.4%
$1.01
+$0.10
+11.0%
$0.04
3.9%
—
PAPER WIN
12.5%
$1.03
+$0.12
+13.2%
$0.87
-$0.04
-4.4%
$0.16
15.5%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.48
-$0.43
-46.9%
$0.38
-$0.53
-58.2%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.41
-$0.50
-54.6%
$0.39
-$0.52
-57.1%
$0.02
5.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.39
-$0.52
-57.1%
$0.38
-$0.53
-58.2%
$0.01
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.17493910000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T08:47:23.924515Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.13700050000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:25.041413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.147539,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.7685,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:49.130885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.105385,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:53:43.826634Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.105385,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.39,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.857524Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.105385,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:55.667650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.147539,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0505,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.322143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.13910820000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.308300Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3fd55af6fc56c276a8106fbc",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "492724590626410281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:02:09.926022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "806843527059547665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "515242588554249181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "521997988015876326",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:02.432289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "511864888985117277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:42.088138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "512990789044453199",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:42.088138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "645845544486527565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:42.088138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "524249787961745403",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:00:50.077182Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.77 Earth Mandala 15.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 15.0% $1.05 Acheron 10.0% $1.03 Facility Negative 10.0% $0.48 | $2.60 +179.9% | $1.22 +31.7% | 70.0% | +67.4% | $0.93 | — |