The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
3x $0.25
Bulkhead
1x $0.42
Mainframe
1x $1.34
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
Picnic
2x $0.58
Coral Paisley
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $17.37
Fraise Crane
12.5% $6.16
Sky Mandala
12.5% $3.51
Exchanger
12.5% $2.42
Earth Mandala
12.5% $2.31
Warm Blooded
12.5% $2.28
Max Win
$17.37 (+178.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.80 (-22.9%)
Win %
12.5%
Volatility
+78.9%
Cost
$6.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.23
Ask Price EV $4.80 (-22.9%)
Bid Price EV $4.70 (-24.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.43 (-22.9%)
Bid Profit $-1.53 (-24.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.43
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.53
Risk
Win Probability 12.5%
Loss Probability 87.5%
Best Case $17.37 (+178.8%)
Worst Case $2.14 (-65.6%)
Volatility +78.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$11.14
Avg Loss -$3.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.14 (-65.6%)
Std Dev $4.92
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 143h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 59S //TOTAL COST $6.23 //ASK PRICE EV $4.80 //BID PRICE EV $4.70 //ASK PROFIT $-1.43 (-22.9%) //BID PROFIT $-1.53 (-24.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.5% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +78.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$17.37
+$11.14
+178.8%
$16.98
+$10.75
+172.6%
$0.39
2.2%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$6.16
-$0.07
-1.2%
$6.12
-$0.11
-1.8%
$0.04
0.6%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$3.51
-$2.72
-43.6%
$3.42
-$2.81
-45.1%
$0.09
2.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.42
-$3.81
-61.2%
$2.36
-$3.87
-62.1%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.31
-$3.92
-63.0%
$2.25
-$3.98
-63.9%
$0.06
2.5%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.28
-$3.95
-63.4%
$2.25
-$3.98
-63.9%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.23
-$4.00
-64.3%
$2.16
-$4.07
-65.3%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.14
-$4.09
-65.6%
$2.04
-$4.19
-67.3%
$0.10
4.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.058017,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045435,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:55.856393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.143,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:46.191905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:01.946752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03495,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:26.104174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.046134,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.307,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3fd55af6fc56c276a8106fbc",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605889840729975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:16.621431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:16.621431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "500605889841484031",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:31.121090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491597893797538058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:16.621431Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:46.208597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "524249787961811211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:30.144861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.051077Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:32.588382Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.68 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.07 Acheron 12.5% $1.03 Facility Negative 12.5% $0.48 | $2.93 +212.1% | $1.15 +22.5% | 62.5% | +74.5% | $0.94 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.60 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.69 Earth Mandala 15.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 15.0% $1.05 Acheron 10.0% $1.03 Facility Negative 10.0% $0.48 | $2.60 +179.9% | $1.21 +30.4% | 70.0% | +66.6% | $0.93 | — |