The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Robin's Egg
1x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.14
Rose Nacre
1x $0.16
Electric Blue
1x $0.20
Steel Work
3x $0.11
Grey Ghost
3x $0.12
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.12
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.25
Reef Grief
8.0% $2.01
Rose Hex
10.0% $1.80
Shredded
10.0% $1.78
Max Win
$3.12 (+118.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.77 (+23.7%)
Win %
62.0%
Volatility
+44.5%
Cost
$1.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.43
Ask Price EV $1.77 (+23.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.68 (+17.8%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+23.7%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+17.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 62.0%
Loss Probability 38.0%
Best Case $3.12 (+118.2%)
Worst Case $0.94 (-34.0%)
Volatility +44.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$0.74
Avg Loss -$0.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.94 (-34.0%)
Std Dev $0.64
Avg Norm Float 0.1166
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 8m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 19S //TOTAL COST $1.43 //ASK PRICE EV $1.77 //BID PRICE EV $1.68 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+23.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+17.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.0% //BEST CASE $3.12 //VOLATILITY +44.5% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$3.12
+$1.69
+118.2%
$3.05
+$1.62
+113.3%
$0.07
2.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.64
+$1.21
+84.6%
$2.62
+$1.19
+83.2%
$0.02
0.8%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.25
+$0.82
+57.4%
$2.09
+$0.66
+46.2%
$0.16
7.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.01
+$0.58
+40.8%
$1.99
+$0.56
+39.2%
$0.02
1.2%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.80
+$0.37
+25.9%
$1.77
+$0.34
+23.8%
$0.03
1.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.78
+$0.35
+24.7%
$1.77
+$0.34
+23.8%
$0.01
0.8%
—
WIN
8.0%
$1.73
+$0.30
+20.7%
$1.61
+$0.18
+12.6%
$0.12
6.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.36
-$0.07
-5.2%
$1.15
-$0.28
-19.6%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.17
-$0.26
-18.1%
$1.04
-$0.39
-27.3%
$0.13
11.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.02
-$0.41
-28.9%
$1.00
-$0.43
-30.1%
$0.02
1.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.94
-$0.49
-34.0%
$0.82
-$0.61
-42.7%
$0.12
13.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05852363299,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.2505,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:34.919868Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08778539118999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:29.851547Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.058295,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:24.597510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:21.474536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0874425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.017,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:27.218500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.07909827029,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:39:15.020213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:23.608962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.08161299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.7265,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:34:52.977486Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0757835,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1704999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:37:35.652502Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:20.066992Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069954,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.014,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:25.419499Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3f3b6b358fcb36a8f3164f00",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "501731842661881121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:38:00.510566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542380388916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:38:51.258554Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "498354142900313815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:37:43.951803Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:35.218174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "515242641502135501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:33:38.005872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506235442367968452",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:33:01.073348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "644719716499093227",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:33:01.073348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:33:01.073348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:33:38.005872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "527627435179952036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:33:38.005872Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint  13.3% $5.03 Mulberry  13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge  13.3% $1.98 Royal Guard  30.0% $1.20 | $6.94 +131.4% | $4.01 +33.6% | 56.7% | +79.6% | $3.00 | — |