The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Citric Acid
1x $0.32
Grey Ghost
2x $0.34
Sedimentary
2x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
10.0% $4.76
Yeti Camo
8.0% $4.46
Red Tide
10.0% $3.33
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.13
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Max Win
$4.76 (-0.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.83 (-40.6%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+20.2%
Cost
$4.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.77
Ask Price EV $2.83 (-40.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.75 (-42.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.94 (-40.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.02 (-42.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+1.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.94
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.02
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.76 (-0.2%)
Worst Case $1.78 (-62.6%)
Volatility +20.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 82.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$1.94
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.78 (-62.6%)
Std Dev $0.96
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 10h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 50S //TOTAL COST $4.77 //ASK PRICE EV $2.83 //BID PRICE EV $2.75 //ASK PROFIT $-1.94 (-40.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.02 (-42.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.76 //VOLATILITY +20.2% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
10.0%
$4.76
-$0.01
-0.2%
$4.73
-$0.04
-0.8%
$0.03
0.6%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.46
-$0.31
-6.5%
$4.43
-$0.34
-7.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.33
-$1.44
-30.2%
$3.31
-$1.46
-30.6%
$0.02
0.6%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$3.13
-$1.64
-34.3%
$3.05
-$1.72
-36.1%
$0.08
2.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.65
-$2.12
-44.4%
$2.64
-$2.13
-44.7%
$0.01
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.64
-$2.13
-44.6%
$2.62
-$2.15
-45.1%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.42
-$2.35
-49.4%
$2.09
-$2.68
-56.2%
$0.33
13.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.26
-$2.51
-52.7%
$2.09
-$2.68
-56.2%
$0.17
7.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.04
-$2.73
-57.2%
$2.00
-$2.77
-58.1%
$0.04
2.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.85
-$2.92
-61.3%
$1.78
-$2.99
-62.7%
$0.07
3.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.78
-$2.99
-62.6%
$1.70
-$3.07
-64.4%
$0.08
4.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03508205429,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.257,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:09.292826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05262304648999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.76,
"optimistic_value": 4.76,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:20.567926Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:02.810177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.8455,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.506274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05241749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.33,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.386708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04741554259,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.415,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:35.299374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1335,
"optimistic_value": 3.13,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:02.019867Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048922999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0454285,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:43.060913Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:47.241816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.04,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3f3b6b358fcb36a8f3164f00",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:57.580213Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:11.939049Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:11.939049Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "497228243055998765",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:11.939049Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:22.436622Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "526501640651444513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:41.490305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "494976390477375618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:37:02.240641Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "505109542380642464",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:19.824222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "528752590489954389",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:37:02.240641Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "501731842661951177",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:19.824222Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.13 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.26 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.04 Shredded 10.0% $1.85 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.78 | $3.13 +107.5% | $1.77 +17.3% | 62.0% | +32.4% | $1.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint  16.7% $4.82 Mulberry  16.7% $4.43 Bleeding Edge  16.7% $2.11 Royal Guard  25.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +129.2% | $3.95 +30.2% | 58.3% | +72.1% | $3.03 | — |