The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Aeolian Dark
3x $0.12
Dark Chamber
1x $0.27
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Banana Leaf
3x $0.16
Coral Paisley
1x $0.23
Picnic
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
12.5% $6.16
Sky Mandala
12.5% $3.48
Earth Mandala
12.5% $2.28
Warm Blooded
12.5% $2.28
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.20
Aeolian Light
12.5% $1.89
Max Win
$6.16 (+170.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.50 (+9.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+70.2%
Cost
$2.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.28
Ask Price EV $2.50 (+9.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.46 (+7.7%)
Ask Profit $0.22 (+9.5%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+7.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+170.1%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-67.5%)
Volatility +70.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 25.0%
Avg Win +$1.27
Avg Loss -$0.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-67.5%)
Std Dev $1.60
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 8h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 45S //TOTAL COST $2.28 //ASK PRICE EV $2.50 //BID PRICE EV $2.46 //ASK PROFIT $0.22 (+9.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+7.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +70.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$6.16
+$3.88
+170.1%
$6.12
+$3.84
+168.4%
$0.04
0.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$3.48
+$1.20
+52.8%
$3.42
+$1.14
+50.0%
$0.06
1.8%
—
PAPER WIN
12.5%
$2.28
+$0.00
+0.2%
$2.25
-$0.03
-1.3%
$0.03
1.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.28
+$0.00
+0.0%
$2.25
-$0.03
-1.3%
$0.03
1.3%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$2.20
-$0.08
-3.4%
$2.19
-$0.09
-3.9%
$0.01
0.6%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.89
-$0.39
-17.2%
$1.86
-$0.42
-18.4%
$0.03
1.5%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.93
-$1.35
-59.3%
$0.85
-$1.43
-62.7%
$0.08
8.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.74
-$1.54
-67.5%
$0.71
-$1.57
-68.9%
$0.03
4.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.07988800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.927,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:03.968357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0579188,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2035,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:11.342837Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06490900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06990199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:18.692949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.074895,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.741,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.175189Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06490900000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.8875,
"optimistic_value": 1.87,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:14.514206Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06990199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06590760000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.636998Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_37f7b6ffbb9fcb8946019ba6",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "519746241188513996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:26:22.276305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "517493591332850710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:26:22.276305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "526501535292675197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:26:22.276305Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "524249787960609063",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:26:10.145038Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "497228243055016469",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:34.671176Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "515242641501270025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:46.637540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:46.637540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:53.911242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501640650770053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "523123940969352778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:42.671042Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.64 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.08 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.04 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.93 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.72 | $2.93 +245.2% | $1.14 +34.7% | 62.5% | +79.8% | $0.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.62 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.05 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.99 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.72 | $2.93 +276.2% | $1.04 +33.8% | 55.0% | +81.8% | $0.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.64 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.09 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.05 Creep 17.5% $0.90 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.87 | $2.93 +233.4% | $1.07 +21.1% | 47.5% | +62.0% | $0.88 | — |