The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.27
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Dark Chamber
2x $0.50
XoooM
2x $0.34
Banana Leaf
2x $0.36
Picnic
1x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
12.5% $6.16
Sky Mandala
12.5% $3.47
Creep
12.5% $2.38
Warm Blooded
12.5% $2.28
Earth Mandala
12.5% $2.27
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.21
Max Win
$6.16 (+13.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.86 (-47.3%)
Win %
12.5%
Volatility
+24.4%
Cost
$5.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.42
Ask Price EV $2.86 (-47.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.82 (-48.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.56 (-47.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.60 (-48.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.56
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.60
Risk
Win Probability 12.5%
Loss Probability 87.5%
Best Case $6.16 (+13.6%)
Worst Case $1.92 (-64.5%)
Volatility +24.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 87.5%
Avg Win +$0.74
Avg Loss -$3.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.92 (-64.5%)
Std Dev $1.32
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 9h 38m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 02S //TOTAL COST $5.42 //ASK PRICE EV $2.86 //BID PRICE EV $2.82 //ASK PROFIT $-2.56 (-47.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.60 (-48.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.5% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +24.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
12.5%
$6.16
+$0.74
+13.6%
$6.12
+$0.70
+12.9%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$3.47
-$1.95
-35.9%
$3.42
-$2.00
-36.9%
$0.05
1.5%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.38
-$3.04
-56.0%
$2.34
-$3.08
-56.8%
$0.04
1.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.28
-$3.14
-57.9%
$2.25
-$3.17
-58.5%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.27
-$3.15
-58.0%
$2.25
-$3.17
-58.5%
$0.02
1.1%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.21
-$3.21
-59.3%
$2.19
-$3.23
-59.6%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.14
-$3.28
-60.5%
$2.10
-$3.32
-61.3%
$0.04
1.9%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.92
-$3.50
-64.5%
$1.86
-$3.56
-65.7%
$0.06
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.055496000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3835,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:49.151155Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.040234599999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2070000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:43.958491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045090500000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.048559,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.4735,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:01.291189Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.052027500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045090500000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.9235,
"optimistic_value": 1.92,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.616694Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.048559,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:02.323434Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045784200000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.2739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:01.525587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_37f7b6ffbb9fcb8946019ba6",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "499480042828463401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:27.819265Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "528753440604812133",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:48.742670Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "515242641502150513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:27.819265Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "526501640650913045",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.835519Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "511864941882072957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.835519Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "501731842661967053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:18.112879Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "509613089305422567",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:29.025529Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501640650770053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:29.025529Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:17.733265Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:18.112879Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 12.5% $6.16 Sky Mandala 12.5% $3.47 Warm Blooded 12.5% $2.28 Earth Mandala 12.5% $2.27 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $2.21 Aeolian Light 12.5% $1.92 | $6.16 +164.3% | $2.50 +7.3% | 25.0% | +58.5% | $2.33 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.62 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.05 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.99 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.72 | $2.93 +276.2% | $1.04 +33.8% | 55.0% | +81.8% | $0.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.62 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.07 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.05 Creep 17.5% $0.94 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.91 | $2.93 +226.0% | $1.08 +20.0% | 65.0% | +59.7% | $0.90 | — |