The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Cold Fusion
2x $0.08
Mainframe
3x $0.10
Rose Nacre
1x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.13
Robin's Egg
1x $0.14
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $2.53
Exchanger
12.5% $2.42
Facility Negative
12.5% $2.23
Co-Processor
12.5% $2.14
Yeti Camo
10.0% $1.90
Cobalt Paisley
10.0% $1.11
Max Win
$2.53 (+77.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.79 (+25.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+41.8%
Cost
$1.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.43
Ask Price EV $1.79 (+25.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.67 (+16.7%)
Ask Profit $0.36 (+25.1%)
Bid Profit $0.24 (+16.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+8.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.36
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $2.53 (+77.1%)
Worst Case $1.04 (-27.5%)
Volatility +41.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$0.83
Avg Loss -$0.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.04 (-27.5%)
Std Dev $0.60
Avg Norm Float 0.1397
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 28m
Oldest Output Price 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 59S //TOTAL COST $1.43 //ASK PRICE EV $1.79 //BID PRICE EV $1.67 //ASK PROFIT $0.36 (+25.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.24 (+16.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $2.53 //VOLATILITY +41.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.53
+$1.10
+77.1%
$2.19
+$0.76
+53.1%
$0.34
13.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.42
+$0.99
+68.9%
$2.36
+$0.93
+65.0%
$0.06
2.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.23
+$0.80
+55.7%
$2.16
+$0.73
+51.0%
$0.07
3.0%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.14
+$0.71
+49.9%
$2.04
+$0.61
+42.7%
$0.10
4.8%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.90
+$0.47
+32.9%
$1.81
+$0.38
+26.6%
$0.09
4.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.11
-$0.32
-22.6%
$1.04
-$0.39
-27.3%
$0.07
6.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.10
-$0.33
-23.0%
$1.01
-$0.42
-29.4%
$0.09
8.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.09
-$0.34
-23.5%
$0.94
-$0.49
-34.3%
$0.15
14.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.04
-$0.39
-27.5%
$0.95
-$0.48
-33.6%
$0.09
8.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1159842,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.533,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:39.454149Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.143,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:46.191905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:01.946752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:26.104174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.083844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0935000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:59.671242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.097818,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.9004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.131294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09083100000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.107,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:20.089447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.083844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.1015,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.845080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.083844,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.037,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:27.736544Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3543fe7e6ba4c5488d203b56",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "502856892583739272",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:42.921270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "515242588554249181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:57.551618Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:57.551618Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "497227393161145157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:57.551618Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:16.621431Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "519746188258687940",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:42.766030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961224195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.519178Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:28.397475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:51:10.286529Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "525375688037289391",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.108655Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Acheron 12.5% $2.53 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 10.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 10.0% $1.04 | $2.53 +153.3% | $1.10 +10.3% | 62.5% | +56.6% | $1.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Exchanger 15.0% $2.42 Acheron 15.0% $2.41 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.14 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.11 | $2.42 +66.6% | $1.88 +29.5% | 68.0% | +27.7% | $1.45 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 10.0% $2.53 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.22 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.14 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.89 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 | $2.53 +86.2% | $1.69 +23.9% | 52.0% | +34.5% | $1.36 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 18.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 18.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 18.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 18.0% $1.04 Acheron 2.5% $1.03 | $1.90 +79.3% | $1.18 +11.4% | 72.0% | +30.0% | $1.06 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  35.0% $6.94 Nuclear Garden  10.0% $3.59 Royal Guard  35.0% $1.36 Core Breach  10.0% $1.31 Random Access  10.0% $1.19 | $6.94 +145.4% | $3.51 +24.2% | 45.0% | +91.9% | $2.83 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  40.0% $418.56 Stratosphere  20.0% $131.31 Remote Control  40.0% $94.77 | $418.56 +91.9% | $231.59 +6.2% | 40.0% | +70.3% | $218.12 | — |