The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cold Fusion
3x $0.06
Mainframe
2x $0.10
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.07
Electric Blue
1x $0.10
Rose Nacre
1x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.13
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $2.43
Yeti Camo
10.0% $1.88
Cobalt Paisley
10.0% $1.12
Royal Baroque
10.0% $1.10
Mint Fan
10.0% $1.09
Reef Grief
10.0% $1.07
Max Win
$2.43 (+148.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.09 (+11.6%)
Win %
62.5%
Volatility
+68.5%
Cost
$0.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.98
Ask Price EV $1.09 (+11.6%)
Bid Price EV $0.99 (+1.3%)
Ask Profit $0.11 (+11.6%)
Bid Profit $0.01 (+1.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.01
Risk
Win Probability 62.5%
Loss Probability 37.5%
Best Case $2.43 (+148.1%)
Worst Case $0.39 (-59.8%)
Volatility +68.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 37.5%
Avg Win +$0.51
Avg Loss -$0.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.39 (-59.8%)
Std Dev $0.67
Avg Norm Float 0.1799
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 1h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 22S //TOTAL COST $0.98 //ASK PRICE EV $1.09 //BID PRICE EV $0.99 //ASK PROFIT $0.11 (+11.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.01 (+1.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.5% //BEST CASE $2.43 //VOLATILITY +68.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.43
+$1.45
+148.1%
$2.19
+$1.21
+123.5%
$0.24
9.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$1.88
+$0.90
+91.9%
$1.81
+$0.83
+84.7%
$0.07
3.7%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$1.12
+$0.14
+14.7%
$1.04
+$0.06
+6.1%
$0.08
7.5%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$1.10
+$0.12
+12.4%
$1.01
+$0.03
+3.1%
$0.09
8.3%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.09
+$0.11
+11.6%
$0.94
-$0.04
-4.1%
$0.15
14.0%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.07
+$0.09
+9.4%
$0.95
-$0.03
-3.1%
$0.12
11.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.48
-$0.50
-50.7%
$0.38
-$0.60
-61.2%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.42
-$0.56
-57.1%
$0.39
-$0.59
-60.2%
$0.03
7.1%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.39
-$0.59
-59.8%
$0.38
-$0.60
-61.2%
$0.01
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1493585,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.431,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:47.812466Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.089975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.42,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:15.807697Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.089975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.3935,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:39.005216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.089975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:12.043704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10797,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0935000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:44.198303Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.125965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8805,
"optimistic_value": 1.87,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:21.899950Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1169675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1245,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10797,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.1015,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10797,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.072,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_3543fe7e6ba4c5488d203b56",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "509613089304884871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:16.464157Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:16.464157Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "502856892583739272",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:16.464157Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "515242588554249181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:17:43.115254Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:17:43.115254Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "528753387757424781",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:41.960738Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "505108692513037256",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.819311Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "519746188258687940",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:52.712993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961224195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:45.214062Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:46.662015Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.43 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.14 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.88 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.12 | $2.43 +74.9% | $1.78 +28.0% | 60.0% | +31.3% | $1.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.50 Exchanger 15.0% $2.42 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.14 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.89 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.14 | $2.50 +68.0% | $1.89 +26.6% | 68.0% | +27.7% | $1.49 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 10.0% $2.43 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.14 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.88 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.12 | $2.43 +78.7% | $1.67 +23.1% | 52.0% | +33.4% | $1.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  40.0% $6.94 Nuclear Garden  6.7% $3.59 Royal Guard  40.0% $1.36 Core Breach  6.7% $1.31 Random Access  6.7% $1.19 | $6.94 +129.2% | $3.73 +23.0% | 46.7% | +88.6% | $3.03 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  40.0% $418.56 Stratosphere  20.0% $131.31 Remote Control  40.0% $94.77 | $418.56 +91.9% | $231.59 +6.2% | 40.0% | +70.3% | $218.12 | — |