The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Roadblock
1x $0.39
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Winterized
1x $0.61
Destroyer
2x $1.86
Run Run Run
1x $2.27
2A2F
1x $2.69
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
16.7% $42.56
Charged Up
16.7% $22.79
Dragon Tech
10.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
10.0% $4.20
Downtown
10.0% $3.53
Max Win
$64.86 (+239.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.25 (+21.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+123.2%
Cost
$19.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.11
Ask Price EV $23.25 (+21.7%)
Bid Price EV $22.08 (+15.5%)
Ask Profit $4.14 (+21.7%)
Bid Profit $2.97 (+15.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.17 (+6.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.14
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.97
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+239.4%)
Worst Case $1.67 (-91.3%)
Volatility +123.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$24.29
Avg Loss -$16.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.67 (-91.3%)
Std Dev $23.55
Avg Norm Float 0.0956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 149h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 28S //TOTAL COST $19.11 //ASK PRICE EV $23.25 //BID PRICE EV $22.08 //ASK PROFIT $4.14 (+21.7%) //BID PROFIT $2.97 (+15.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +123.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$64.86
+$45.75
+239.4%
$61.61
+$42.50
+222.4%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$42.56
+$23.45
+122.7%
$40.17
+$21.06
+110.2%
$2.39
5.6%
—
WIN
16.7%
$22.79
+$3.68
+19.2%
$21.50
+$2.39
+12.5%
$1.29
5.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.38
-$14.73
-77.1%
$4.37
-$14.74
-77.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.20
-$14.91
-78.0%
$4.19
-$14.92
-78.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.53
-$15.58
-81.5%
$3.52
-$15.59
-81.6%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.72
-$17.39
-91.0%
$1.61
-$17.50
-91.6%
$0.11
6.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.67
-$17.44
-91.3%
$1.63
-$17.48
-91.5%
$0.04
2.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06691299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 42.5615,
"optimistic_value": 42.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:42.474955Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1498546,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.09559,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.7875,
"optimistic_value": 22.77,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:43.119528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09559,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 1.7175,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:20.281655Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0621335,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:51.841020Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06691299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:04.954294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09559,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 1.6704999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:57.286594Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06691299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:21.681733Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_347b84f45698f97e3ff3fb12",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "525375522203724595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:15.893964Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:26.735743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "518620288313023888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:33:11.204462Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:09.962118Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "635712445338920863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:09.962118Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "514116741797213934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "519746241188631932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:08.136931Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:08.136931Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.79 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $0.72 Vent Rush 10.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +179.6% | $4.39 +27.0% | 50.0% | +97.9% | $3.46 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.69 Derailment 16.7% $42.56 Crazy 8 10.0% $10.92 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $10.45 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 | $64.86 +149.9% | $31.87 +22.8% | 50.0% | +89.1% | $25.96 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $42.56 Charged Up 20.0% $22.67 Dragon Tech 8.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 8.0% $4.20 Downtown 8.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +192.8% | $27.26 +23.1% | 60.0% | +97.2% | $22.15 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.53 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.80 Flora Carnivora 12.0% $0.72 Vent Rush 12.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +219.3% | $3.67 +21.0% | 40.0% | +111.8% | $3.03 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.79 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +148.9% | $31.31 +20.2% | 46.7% | +80.8% | $26.06 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.79 Dragon Tech 4.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 4.0% $4.20 Downtown 4.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +118.2% | $35.34 +18.9% | 53.3% | +67.8% | $29.73 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.69 Derailment 10.0% $42.56 Crazy 8 14.0% $10.92 Flora Carnivora 14.0% $10.45 Dragon Tech 14.0% $4.38 | $64.86 +240.7% | $21.80 +14.5% | 30.0% | +115.2% | $19.04 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.78 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.29 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.07 | $14.78 +443.5% | $2.94 +8.2% | 20.0% | +143.4% | $2.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $37.59 Ice Coaled  16.7% $27.70 Visions  16.7% $24.97 | $597.10 +216.0% | $237.93 +25.9% | 50.0% | +123.7% | $188.98 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $93.32 Chromatic Aberration  40.0% $64.55 | $663.30 +299.0% | $195.81 +17.8% | 20.0% | +140.8% | $166.23 | — |