The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Destroyer
2x $0.13
Poly Mag
2x $0.13
Roadblock
1x $0.16
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
3x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $9.68
Charged Up
16.7% $7.55
Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Crazy 8
10.0% $0.81
Flora Carnivora
10.0% $0.74
Vent Rush
10.0% $0.70
Max Win
$9.68 (+174.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.41 (+25.4%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+107.6%
Cost
$3.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.52
Ask Price EV $4.41 (+25.4%)
Bid Price EV $4.21 (+19.7%)
Ask Profit $0.89 (+25.4%)
Bid Profit $0.69 (+19.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.89
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.69
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+174.9%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-81.4%)
Volatility +107.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.60
Avg Loss -$2.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-81.4%)
Std Dev $3.79
Avg Norm Float 0.3401
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 28h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 26S //TOTAL COST $3.52 //ASK PRICE EV $4.41 //BID PRICE EV $4.21 //ASK PROFIT $0.89 (+25.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.69 (+19.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +107.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$9.68
+$6.16
+174.9%
$9.66
+$6.14
+174.4%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.55
+$4.03
+114.4%
$7.29
+$3.77
+107.1%
$0.26
3.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.13
+$3.61
+102.5%
$6.40
+$2.88
+81.8%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.81
-$2.71
-77.0%
$0.70
-$2.82
-80.1%
$0.11
13.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$2.78
-79.0%
$0.69
-$2.83
-80.4%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$2.82
-80.0%
$0.61
-$2.91
-82.7%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.65
-$2.87
-81.4%
$0.61
-$2.91
-82.7%
$0.04
6.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.65
-$2.87
-81.4%
$0.62
-$2.90
-82.4%
$0.03
5.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.23809099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.37972219999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.850350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.34013,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.547999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.52,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:51.132453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.34013,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7375,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:23.513038Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2210845,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:16:28.368727Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.23809099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.34013,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.8105,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:53:16.348832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.23809099999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:24:07.859734Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_347b84f45698f97e3ff3fb12",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "526501640650476869",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:49.221527Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "520872141037593120",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:21:34.714899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:49.221527Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "509613089305491471",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:21:34.714899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620122759304192",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:18.777891Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "520872141037677576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249840858869023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 16.7% $65.07 Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Crazy 8 10.0% $10.92 Flora Carnivora 10.0% $10.45 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 | $65.07 +147.6% | $32.40 +23.3% | 50.0% | +89.3% | $26.28 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $43.71 Charged Up 16.7% $22.86 Dragon Tech 10.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 10.0% $4.20 Downtown 10.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +234.5% | $23.46 +21.0% | 50.0% | +111.5% | $19.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.53 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.81 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $0.74 Vent Rush 8.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +132.5% | $5.15 +23.8% | 60.0% | +78.5% | $4.16 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.75 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Crazy 8 12.0% $0.77 Flora Carnivora 12.0% $0.74 Vent Rush 12.0% $0.70 | $9.68 +220.4% | $3.69 +22.3% | 40.0% | +113.2% | $3.02 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $44.39 Charged Up 23.3% $22.78 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +146.3% | $31.74 +20.5% | 46.7% | +80.6% | $26.33 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.39 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Dragon Tech 14.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 14.0% $4.20 Downtown 14.0% $3.53 | $64.86 +393.3% | $15.38 +17.0% | 30.0% | +149.9% | $13.15 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.86 Whiteout 6.7% $9.68 Charged Up 6.7% $7.55 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.06 | $14.86 +450.5% | $2.94 +9.1% | 20.0% | +145.5% | $2.70 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Kiss♥Love  16.7% $37.59 Ice Coaled  16.7% $27.70 Visions  16.7% $24.97 | $597.10 +224.2% | $237.93 +29.2% | 50.0% | +126.9% | $184.18 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $92.68 Chromatic Aberration  40.0% $64.55 | $663.30 +297.0% | $195.55 +17.0% | 20.0% | +140.2% | $167.08 | — |