The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Scrawl
2x $0.21
Poultrygeist
1x $0.29
Foresight
2x $0.30
Ensnared
2x $0.32
Necro Jr.
1x $0.41
Scumbria
2x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Stone Cold
5.0% $19.97
Wingshot
5.0% $9.46
Special Delivery
5.0% $9.16
Nebula Crusader
5.0% $8.99
Night Terror
16.0% $4.12
Ticket to Hell
16.0% $3.94
Max Win
$19.97 (+451.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.29 (+18.6%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+124.3%
Cost
$3.62
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.62
Ask Price EV $4.29 (+18.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.40 (-6.2%)
Ask Profit $0.67 (+18.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.22 (-6.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.90 (+24.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.67
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $19.97 (+451.8%)
Worst Case $1.15 (-68.2%)
Volatility +124.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$3.44
Avg Loss -$2.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.15 (-68.2%)
Std Dev $4.50
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 152h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 15S //TOTAL COST $3.62 //ASK PRICE EV $4.29 //BID PRICE EV $3.40 //ASK PROFIT $0.67 (+18.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.22 (-6.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $19.97 //VOLATILITY +124.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$19.97
+$16.35
+451.8%
$15.70
+$12.08
+333.7%
$4.27
21.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$9.46
+$5.84
+161.2%
$7.60
+$3.98
+109.9%
$1.86
19.6%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
5.0%
$9.16
+$5.54
+153.0%
$5.26
+$1.64
+45.3%
$3.90
42.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$8.99
+$5.37
+148.4%
$6.97
+$3.35
+92.5%
$2.02
22.5%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$4.12
+$0.50
+13.9%
$3.46
-$0.16
-4.4%
$0.66
16.1%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$3.94
+$0.32
+8.8%
$3.26
-$0.36
-9.9%
$0.68
17.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.43
-$2.19
-60.4%
$1.22
-$2.40
-66.3%
$0.21
14.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.31
-$2.31
-63.7%
$1.19
-$2.43
-67.1%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.15
-$2.47
-68.2%
$1.00
-$2.62
-72.4%
$0.15
13.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-9|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.434,
"optimistic_value": 1.42,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:50.806191Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.104797,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.10030570000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.314,
"optimistic_value": 1.3,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:10.028419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.11377960000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.074855,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.1515,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.949552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13473900000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d7cafe33cee",
"realistic_value": 19.9745,
"optimistic_value": 18.83,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Stone Cold",
"conservative_value": 15.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:42.860043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d7cafe33cee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.14971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fe2ecdf6f921",
"realistic_value": 8.992,
"optimistic_value": 8.88,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Nebula Crusader",
"conservative_value": 6.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:42:36.130369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fe2ecdf6f921.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0928202,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3994ae535237",
"realistic_value": 9.15925,
"optimistic_value": 9,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Special Delivery",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:49:33.386791Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3994ae535237.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13473900000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa792cc15a05",
"realistic_value": 9.457,
"optimistic_value": 9.38,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Wingshot",
"conservative_value": 7.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:05.022073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa792cc15a05.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_309b1f799766933da6b36bc0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "514116688948507758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:17:01.334505Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "507361289451954337",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:17:01.334505Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "509612292204674439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:33.829680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "509612292238590183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:01.885223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "509612292231168711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:01.885223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "521997191218606146",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.499520Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "518620122755714344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.499520Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228190142503425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:55.930464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "527627322006599216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:04.106986Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "517493591320566898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:28:04.106986Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:8+collection-set-community-9:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $4.54 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +498.0% | $3.97 +18.9% | 52.0% | +118.5% | $3.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $4.54 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +418.8% | $4.82 +25.3% | 58.0% | +117.4% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 10.0% $19.97 Wingshot 10.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 10.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 10.0% $4.54 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +323.2% | $5.68 +20.4% | 30.0% | +103.5% | $4.72 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Shadow Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 12.5% $19.97 Wingshot 12.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 12.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 12.5% $4.54 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +249.8% | $6.53 +14.3% | 37.5% | +89.8% | $5.71 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Kill Confirmed  15.0% $447.62 Golden Coil  15.0% $435.84 Nightwish  35.0% $109.07 Starlight Protector  35.0% $98.54 | $447.62 +157.9% | $205.18 +18.2% | 30.0% | +89.3% | $173.57 | — |