The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.32
Necro Jr.
2x $0.41
Foresight
1x $0.81
Spirit Board
1x $1.31
Lifted Spirits
2x $1.43
Scumbria
2x $1.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Stone Cold
5.0% $55.82
Nebula Crusader
5.0% $24.43
Wingshot
5.0% $23.81
Special Delivery
5.0% $23.45
Ticket to Hell
16.0% $10.13
Night Terror
16.0% $7.95
Max Win
$55.82 (+392.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.05 (-2.6%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+109.3%
Cost
$11.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $11.34
Ask Price EV $11.05 (-2.6%)
Bid Price EV $8.99 (-20.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.29 (-2.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.35 (-20.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.06 (+18.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.35
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $55.82 (+392.2%)
Worst Case $2.30 (-79.7%)
Volatility +109.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 64.0%
Avg Win +$20.54
Avg Loss -$5.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.30 (-79.7%)
Std Dev $12.40
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 152h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Factory New
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Factory New
$1.89 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Minimal Wear
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Scumbria
—
Minimal Wear
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 16S //TOTAL COST $11.34 //ASK PRICE EV $11.05 //BID PRICE EV $8.99 //ASK PROFIT $-0.29 (-2.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.35 (-20.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $55.82 //VOLATILITY +109.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$55.82
+$44.48
+392.2%
$46.01
+$34.67
+305.7%
$9.81
17.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$24.43
+$13.09
+115.4%
$19.41
+$8.07
+71.2%
$5.02
20.6%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$23.81
+$12.47
+110.0%
$19.44
+$8.10
+71.4%
$4.37
18.4%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
5.0%
$23.45
+$12.11
+106.8%
$11.36
+$0.02
+0.2%
$12.09
51.6%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$10.13
-$1.21
-10.7%
$8.42
-$2.92
-25.7%
$1.71
16.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$7.95
-$3.39
-29.9%
$7.88
-$3.46
-30.5%
$0.07
0.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$5.85
-$5.49
-48.4%
$5.08
-$6.26
-55.2%
$0.77
13.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.99
-$8.36
-73.7%
$2.62
-$8.72
-76.9%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.30
-$9.04
-79.7%
$2.13
-$9.21
-81.2%
$0.17
7.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-9|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:03.036867Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048936999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 7.9544999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 7.93,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:30.263681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.046839700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0531316,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.034955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.3005,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:44.605565Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.062919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d7cafe33cee",
"realistic_value": 55.8175,
"optimistic_value": 55.24,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Stone Cold",
"conservative_value": 46.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:31.959846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d7cafe33cee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-fe2ecdf6f921",
"realistic_value": 24.4315,
"optimistic_value": 23,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Nebula Crusader",
"conservative_value": 19.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:45:23.032757Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fe2ecdf6f921.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0433442,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3994ae535237",
"realistic_value": 23.4495,
"optimistic_value": 18.91,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Special Delivery",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T09:05:20.986759Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3994ae535237.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.062919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa792cc15a05",
"realistic_value": 23.811500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 23.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Wingshot",
"conservative_value": 19.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Shadow Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:02.589133Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa792cc15a05.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_309b1f799766933da6b36bc0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "521997191218606146",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.499520Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228190142503425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:55.930464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "501730992851159909",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:55.930464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "503983642532457235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:39.245060Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "501731737285619693",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:59.418848Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235337024831560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:56.457669Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:56.457669Z"
},
{
"price": 1.89,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "624453518130657294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:03.280111Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "512990736599863619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:25:00.151799Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5e6f7c90cb",
"listing_id": "511864091771105733",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-9",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Scumbria",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5e6f7c90cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:25:00.151799Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:8+collection-set-community-9:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $4.54 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +498.0% | $3.97 +18.9% | 52.0% | +118.5% | $3.34 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Shadow Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Stone Cold 5.0% $19.97 Wingshot 5.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 5.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 5.0% $8.99 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +451.8% | $4.29 +18.6% | 52.0% | +110.3% | $3.62 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 7.5% $19.97 Wingshot 7.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 7.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 7.5% $4.54 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +418.8% | $4.82 +25.3% | 58.0% | +117.4% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Shadow Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 10.0% $19.97 Wingshot 10.0% $9.46 Special Delivery 10.0% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 10.0% $4.54 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +323.2% | $5.68 +20.4% | 30.0% | +103.5% | $4.72 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Shadow Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Stone Cold 12.5% $19.97 Wingshot 12.5% $9.46 Special Delivery 12.5% $9.16 Nebula Crusader 12.5% $4.54 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 | $19.97 +249.8% | $6.53 +14.3% | 37.5% | +89.8% | $5.71 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Shadow Collection ×3 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Kill Confirmed  15.0% $447.62 Golden Coil  15.0% $435.84 Nightwish  35.0% $109.07 Starlight Protector  35.0% $98.54 | $447.62 +157.9% | $205.18 +18.2% | 30.0% | +89.3% | $173.57 | — |