The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.18
Necro Jr.
1x $0.29
Copperflage
2x $0.17
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.19
Glockingbird
30.0% $3.87
Night Terror
8.0% $1.41
Space Cat
8.0% $1.17
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $1.00
Dream Glade
8.0% $0.90
Max Win
$5.19 (+88.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.15 (+14.4%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+64.5%
Cost
$2.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.75
Ask Price EV $3.15 (+14.4%)
Bid Price EV $3.09 (+12.4%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+14.4%)
Bid Profit $0.34 (+12.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $5.19 (+88.5%)
Worst Case $0.86 (-68.6%)
Volatility +64.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.78
Avg Loss -$1.68
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.86 (-68.6%)
Std Dev $1.77
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 08S //TOTAL COST $2.75 //ASK PRICE EV $3.15 //BID PRICE EV $3.09 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+14.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.34 (+12.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $5.19 //VOLATILITY +64.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$5.19
+$2.44
+88.5%
$5.07
+$2.32
+84.4%
$0.12
2.2%
—
WIN
30.0%
$3.87
+$1.12
+40.8%
$3.84
+$1.09
+39.6%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.41
-$1.34
-48.6%
$1.35
-$1.40
-50.9%
$0.06
4.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.17
-$1.58
-57.5%
$1.16
-$1.59
-57.8%
$0.01
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.00
-$1.75
-63.5%
$0.99
-$1.76
-64.0%
$0.01
1.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.90
-$1.85
-67.1%
$0.87
-$1.88
-68.4%
$0.03
3.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.86
-$1.89
-68.6%
$0.85
-$1.90
-69.1%
$0.01
1.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.13374540000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.871,
"optimistic_value": 3.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:52.441156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.149715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.1850000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.15,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:45.854802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19962,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.9045,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:47.458800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.139734,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.4135,
"optimistic_value": 1.41,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:51.782531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.13374540000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.17,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:11.880855Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.1517112,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.8634999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.86,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:21.425132Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.0035,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:48.343354Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_30261de411a9902ce61b1228",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "529879287551817216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:35:15.993074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "507361342333856833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:35:15.993074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496101493269460391",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:24:07.215937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "506235442367241432",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:24.630207Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "521998040962350366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:15:09.687069Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.739517Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.739517Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "519746241188606228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.731518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "499479989895403681",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "492724590626273193",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:28.967905Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.66 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97 Night Terror 8.0% $4.01 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Dream Glade 8.0% $1.64 | $17.66 +81.7% | $9.93 +2.2% | 60.0% | +61.1% | $9.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.57 Night Terror 10.0% $1.41 Space Cat 10.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +119.6% | $2.88 +21.5% | 50.0% | +68.4% | $2.37 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.92 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.62 Night Terror 14.0% $1.41 Space Cat 14.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +172.5% | $2.23 +16.5% | 30.0% | +78.7% | $1.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.19 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.87 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.52 Night Terror 12.0% $1.40 Space Cat 12.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.00 | $5.19 +135.7% | $2.54 +15.6% | 40.0% | +72.0% | $2.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.20 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.88 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.57 Night Terror 6.0% $1.41 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.02 | $5.20 +67.3% | $3.55 +14.0% | 70.0% | +48.1% | $3.11 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  30.0% $36.26 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $9.15 Melondrama  23.3% $9.07 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $8.84 | $36.26 +158.1% | $17.19 +22.4% | 30.0% | +88.8% | $14.05 | — |