The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Foresight
1x $0.31
Necro Jr.
2x $1.53
Ensnared
1x $1.85
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.71
Copperflage
1x $1.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
30.0% $17.66
Glockingbird
30.0% $11.97
Dream Glade
8.0% $8.61
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $4.90
Night Terror
8.0% $4.00
Space Cat
8.0% $3.22
Max Win
$17.66 (+16.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.76 (-29.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+36.9%
Cost
$15.15
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.15
Ask Price EV $10.76 (-29.0%)
Bid Price EV $10.50 (-30.7%)
Ask Profit $-4.39 (-29.0%)
Bid Profit $-4.65 (-30.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.26 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.39
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.65
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $17.66 (+16.6%)
Worst Case $2.67 (-82.4%)
Volatility +36.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.51
Avg Loss -$7.35
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.67 (-82.4%)
Std Dev $5.59
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 20m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Factory New
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 38S //TOTAL COST $15.15 //ASK PRICE EV $10.76 //BID PRICE EV $10.50 //ASK PROFIT $-4.39 (-29.0%) //BID PROFIT $-4.65 (-30.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $17.66 //VOLATILITY +36.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
30.0%
$17.66
+$2.51
+16.6%
$17.09
+$1.94
+12.8%
$0.57
3.2%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$11.97
-$3.18
-21.0%
$11.70
-$3.45
-22.8%
$0.27
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.61
-$6.54
-43.2%
$8.54
-$6.61
-43.6%
$0.07
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.90
-$10.25
-67.7%
$4.89
-$10.26
-67.7%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.00
-$11.15
-73.6%
$3.98
-$11.17
-73.7%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.22
-$11.93
-78.7%
$3.19
-$11.96
-78.9%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.67
-$12.48
-82.4%
$2.67
-$12.48
-82.4%
$0.00
0.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0468196,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.970500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:15.363364Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.05241,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6605,
"optimistic_value": 17.65,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:28.190227Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.607,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:21.329305Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:45.318729Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0468196,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.454652Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0531088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:22.311200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.03494,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.6735,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:48.897613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_30261de411a9902ce61b1228",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:21.300600Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "493850543431808212",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:35.318000Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "526501640650592789",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:35.318000Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "512990841908066579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:27.402639Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "505109542379963072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:31.012656Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:20.064064Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "659356415310796570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:20.064064Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:20.064064Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.86 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.64 Night Terror 8.0% $1.39 Space Cat 8.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.01 | $5.26 +90.0% | $3.23 +16.6% | 60.0% | +57.5% | $2.77 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.66 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $4.90 Night Terror 8.0% $4.00 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.67 | $17.66 +74.5% | $10.20 +0.8% | 60.0% | +55.4% | $10.12 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.86 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.51 Night Terror 10.0% $1.40 Space Cat 10.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.00 | $5.26 +116.6% | $2.89 +18.9% | 50.0% | +67.3% | $2.43 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.86 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.64 Night Terror 12.0% $1.39 Space Cat 12.0% $1.26 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.01 | $5.26 +143.7% | $2.57 +18.8% | 40.0% | +74.0% | $2.16 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.86 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.64 Night Terror 14.0% $1.39 Space Cat 14.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.01 | $5.26 +172.7% | $2.23 +15.4% | 30.0% | +78.2% | $1.93 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.86 Night Terror 6.0% $1.40 Space Cat 6.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.00 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90 | $5.26 +72.0% | $3.52 +15.0% | 70.0% | +51.3% | $3.06 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.31 Glockingbird 45.0% $11.97 Night Terror 2.0% $4.00 Space Cat 2.0% $3.20 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $1.67 | $17.31 +37.7% | $13.44 +6.9% | 45.0% | +32.5% | $12.57 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  30.0% $36.26 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.30 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $9.11 Melondrama  23.3% $8.72 | $36.26 +165.4% | $17.21 +26.0% | 30.0% | +91.3% | $13.66 | — |