The Recoil Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Poly Mag
2x $0.12
Sky Mandala
1x $0.34
Fraise Crane
1x $0.35
Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
Warm Blooded
5x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $7.37
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.52
Crazy 8
4.0% $0.71
Vent Rush
4.0% $0.70
Dragon Tech
4.0% $0.70
Flora Carnivora
4.0% $0.69
Max Win
$7.37 (+87.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.10 (+4.5%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+70.2%
Cost
$3.92
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.92
Ask Price EV $4.10 (+4.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.89 (-0.8%)
Ask Profit $0.18 (+4.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.03 (-0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.03
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $7.37 (+87.9%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-82.4%)
Volatility +70.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$3.45
Avg Loss -$2.00
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-82.4%)
Std Dev $2.75
Avg Norm Float 0.4435
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 123h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 25S //TOTAL COST $3.92 //ASK PRICE EV $4.10 //BID PRICE EV $3.89 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+4.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.03 (-0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $7.37 //VOLATILITY +70.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
40.0%
$7.37
+$3.45
+87.9%
$7.16
+$3.24
+82.7%
$0.21
2.8%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$2.52
-$1.40
-35.6%
$2.25
-$1.67
-42.6%
$0.27
10.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.71
-$3.21
-81.8%
$0.57
-$3.35
-85.5%
$0.14
20.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.70
-$3.22
-82.1%
$0.61
-$3.31
-84.4%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.70
-$3.22
-82.1%
$0.62
-$3.30
-84.2%
$0.08
11.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.69
-$3.23
-82.4%
$0.66
-$3.26
-83.2%
$0.03
4.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.69
-$3.23
-82.4%
$0.61
-$3.31
-84.4%
$0.08
11.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.310464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.367,
"optimistic_value": 7.29,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:41:12.309979Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.310464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5244999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.5,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:41.973109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44352,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:50:29.393112Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.28828800000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:48.435276Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.310464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44352,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:39:07.418782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.310464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.7,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:49:57.934166Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2e4715573bcb08c8494de008",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "490472790737319531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:36.642365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "514116688949403654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:43:36.642365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "529879287551276496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620288314051868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737290515",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605889841164747",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $7.37 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.52 Vent Rush 4.0% $0.70 Dragon Tech 4.0% $0.70 Downtown 4.0% $0.69 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.69 | $7.37 +102.4% | $4.09 +12.4% | 40.0% | +73.3% | $3.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.12 Downtown 8.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 8.0% $0.77 | $12.78 +119.5% | $7.78 +33.7% | 60.0% | +88.9% | $5.82 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.30 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.12 Downtown 6.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.78 | $13.33 +94.5% | $9.11 +32.9% | 70.0% | +72.0% | $6.85 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.12 Downtown 16.0% $1.09 Flora Carnivora 16.0% $0.77 | $12.78 +413.1% | $3.26 +31.1% | 20.0% | +177.2% | $2.49 | — |