The Recoil Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Poly Mag
1x $0.13
Destroyer
1x $0.14
Fraise Crane
2x $0.34
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Earth Mandala
1x $0.46
Warm Blooded
3x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $7.57
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.60
Vent Rush
4.0% $0.70
Crazy 8
4.0% $0.69
Dragon Tech
4.0% $0.67
Flora Carnivora
4.0% $0.66
Max Win
$7.57 (+106.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.20 (+14.6%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+77.3%
Cost
$3.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.67
Ask Price EV $4.20 (+14.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.88 (+5.6%)
Ask Profit $0.53 (+14.6%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+5.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+8.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.53
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $7.57 (+106.3%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-82.1%)
Volatility +77.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$3.90
Avg Loss -$1.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-82.0%)
Std Dev $2.84
Avg Norm Float 0.5078
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 139h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 22S //TOTAL COST $3.67 //ASK PRICE EV $4.20 //BID PRICE EV $3.88 //ASK PROFIT $0.53 (+14.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+5.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $7.57 //VOLATILITY +77.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
40.0%
$7.57
+$3.90
+106.3%
$7.15
+$3.48
+94.8%
$0.42
5.6%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$2.60
-$1.07
-29.1%
$2.25
-$1.42
-38.7%
$0.35
13.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.70
-$2.97
-80.8%
$0.61
-$3.06
-83.4%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.69
-$2.98
-81.2%
$0.55
-$3.12
-85.0%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.67
-$3.00
-81.6%
$0.61
-$3.06
-83.4%
$0.06
9.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.66
-$3.01
-82.0%
$0.55
-$3.12
-85.0%
$0.11
16.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.66
-$3.01
-82.1%
$0.59
-$3.08
-83.9%
$0.07
10.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.35545299999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.571000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 7.48,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:29:46.826428Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.35545299999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.6015,
"optimistic_value": 2.57,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:48.251879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.50779,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:32:50.704010Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.3300635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.6575,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:46.749128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.35545299999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.50779,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:46.752845Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.35545299999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.674,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:10.552973Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2e4715573bcb08c8494de008",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "514116688949403654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:56:03.076000Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "524249735518461147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:50.102012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "526501587737312333",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:48.112225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:54.819866Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:48.112225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:54.819866Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "494976390476572746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.357849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "493850490549989488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605889841164747",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:12.837350Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 40.0% $7.57 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.60 Crazy 8 4.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 4.0% $0.70 Flora Carnivora 4.0% $0.69 Dragon Tech 4.0% $0.67 | $7.57 +90.2% | $4.21 +5.7% | 40.0% | +69.0% | $3.98 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.12 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.72 | $13.33 +93.7% | $9.10 +32.2% | 70.0% | +71.8% | $6.88 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.25 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.18 Downtown 16.0% $1.10 Flora Carnivora 16.0% $0.76 | $13.26 +426.1% | $3.31 +31.4% | 20.0% | +179.1% | $2.52 | — |