The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Mockingbird
1x $0.42
Sure Grip
3x $0.59
Resupply
1x $1.80
Bock Blocks
3x $0.87
RMX
2x $1.62
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
10.0% $31.66
Amberline
10.0% $18.87
Galigator
10.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $13.92
Rising Sun
10.0% $12.22
Max Win
$51.27 (+252.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.73 (+21.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+89.9%
Cost
$14.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.55
Ask Price EV $17.73 (+21.9%)
Bid Price EV $15.35 (+5.5%)
Ask Profit $3.18 (+21.9%)
Bid Profit $0.80 (+5.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.38 (+16.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.18
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.80
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+252.4%)
Worst Case $5.86 (-59.7%)
Volatility +89.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$19.38
Avg Loss -$3.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.86 (-59.7%)
Std Dev $13.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 125h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 48S //TOTAL COST $14.55 //ASK PRICE EV $17.73 //BID PRICE EV $15.35 //ASK PROFIT $3.18 (+21.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.80 (+5.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +89.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$51.27
+$36.72
+252.4%
$43.51
+$28.96
+199.0%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$31.66
+$17.11
+117.6%
$29.45
+$14.90
+102.4%
$2.21
7.0%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$18.87
+$4.32
+29.7%
$12.97
-$1.58
-10.9%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$14.51
-$0.04
-0.3%
$13.05
-$1.50
-10.3%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$13.92
-$0.63
-4.4%
$11.82
-$2.73
-18.8%
$2.10
15.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$12.22
-$2.33
-16.0%
$11.96
-$2.59
-17.8%
$0.26
2.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$10.28
-$4.27
-29.4%
$9.00
-$5.55
-38.1%
$1.28
12.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$10.05
-$4.50
-30.9%
$8.52
-$6.03
-41.4%
$1.53
15.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$8.70
-$5.85
-40.2%
$7.63
-$6.92
-47.6%
$1.07
12.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.86
-$8.69
-59.7%
$5.61
-$8.94
-61.4%
$0.25
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03985439999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0558657304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.917,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 12.2245,
"optimistic_value": 11.99,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:26.533645Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06646238607999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 10.2765,
"optimistic_value": 10.21,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:38.693628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.8635,
"optimistic_value": 5.79,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:43.942942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_2d6c66e0a94904cc3aec30ad",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "510738192160619110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:23.321259Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:13.698046Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "490472790737616207",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:42.685557Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:09:55.498626Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "502857524062906300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:42.685557Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:10.494064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:10.494064Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242423034647657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "492724538182380753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688037272075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.42 Galigator 10.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.81 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 | $16.94 +229.5% | $5.98 +16.3% | 40.0% | +74.7% | $5.14 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.23 Amberline 10.0% $3.22 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.64 | $10.69 +270.0% | $3.30 +14.3% | 50.0% | +88.4% | $2.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 6.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +208.5% | $21.06 +26.7% | 42.0% | +76.6% | $16.62 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 8.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +234.7% | $19.40 +26.6% | 36.0% | +80.1% | $15.32 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 4.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +180.2% | $22.72 +24.2% | 48.0% | +71.9% | $18.30 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 12.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +289.9% | $16.07 +22.2% | 40.0% | +83.8% | $13.15 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 14.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +323.1% | $14.41 +18.9% | 44.0% | +83.0% | $12.12 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Amberline 4.0% $6.42 Galigator 4.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.81 Serpent Strike 16.0% $4.41 | $16.94 +357.7% | $4.21 +13.7% | 36.0% | +78.9% | $3.70 | — |
The Fever Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 2.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 2.0% $10.78 Amberline 2.0% $6.48 Galigator 2.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $4.73 Serpent Strike 18.0% $4.41 | $16.94 +410.1% | $3.61 +8.7% | 28.0% | +67.2% | $3.32 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Rising Sun 2.0% $12.22 | $51.27 +123.5% | $24.38 +6.3% | 36.0% | +59.4% | $22.94 | — |