The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Impact Drill
1x $3.87
Lime Hex
1x $0.03
Grey Smoke
2x $0.04
Storm Camo
1x $0.04
Buff Blue
1x $0.04
Cobalt Grip
2x $0.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
3.3% $19.57
Night
3.3% $18.33
Urban Rubble
3.3% $18.32
Ocean Topo
10.0% $0.27
Electric Blue
10.0% $0.19
Sour Grapes
10.0% $0.18
Max Win
$19.57 (+350.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.02 (-53.5%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+128.5%
Cost
$4.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.34
Ask Price EV $2.02 (-53.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.69 (-61.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.32 (-53.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.65 (-61.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+7.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.65
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $19.57 (+350.9%)
Worst Case $0.12 (-97.3%)
Volatility +128.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$14.40
Avg Loss -$4.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.12 (-97.3%)
Std Dev $5.58
Avg Norm Float 0.1816
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 139h 17m
Oldest Output Price 140h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Impact Drill
—
Battle-Scarred
$3.87 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.03 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Grey Smoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Storm Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Buff Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.04 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Blue Blast
—
Minimal Wear
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 26S //TOTAL COST $4.34 //ASK PRICE EV $2.02 //BID PRICE EV $1.69 //ASK PROFIT $-2.32 (-53.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.65 (-61.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $19.57 //VOLATILITY +128.5% //
Possible Outputs · 12
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$19.57
+$15.23
+350.9%
$18.59
+$14.25
+328.3%
$0.98
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$18.33
+$13.99
+322.4%
$16.53
+$12.19
+280.9%
$1.80
9.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$18.32
+$13.98
+322.0%
$12.00
+$7.66
+176.5%
$6.32
34.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.27
-$4.07
-93.7%
$0.23
-$4.11
-94.7%
$0.04
15.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.19
-$4.15
-95.6%
$0.17
-$4.17
-96.1%
$0.02
10.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.18
-$4.16
-95.9%
$0.16
-$4.18
-96.3%
$0.02
11.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.15
-$4.19
-96.5%
$0.13
-$4.21
-97.0%
$0.02
13.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.14
-$4.20
-96.7%
$0.12
-$4.22
-97.2%
$0.02
16.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.13
-$4.21
-97.0%
$0.10
-$4.24
-97.7%
$0.03
23.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.12
-$4.22
-97.2%
$0.10
-$4.24
-97.7%
$0.02
19.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.12
-$4.22
-97.2%
$0.11
-$4.23
-97.5%
$0.01
10.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.12
-$4.22
-97.3%
$0.10
-$4.24
-97.7%
$0.02
14.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.12712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.1235,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:47.362653Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.1235,
"optimistic_value": 0.12,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:33.825466Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.13,
"optimistic_value": 0.13,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.676402Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.2735,
"optimistic_value": 0.27,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:29.177983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.14350000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 0.14,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:28:13.652925Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14528000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.18,
"optimistic_value": 0.18,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:26.871551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1232030696,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.15,
"optimistic_value": 0.15,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:44:09.495101Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10896,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.117,
"optimistic_value": 0.11,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:23:29.496597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.13620000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.19,
"optimistic_value": 0.19,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:48:16.307954Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.194384,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 18.332,
"optimistic_value": 18.01,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 16.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:59:28.290339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 18.316,
"optimistic_value": 17.63,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:45.077127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14528000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 19.57,
"optimistic_value": 18.8,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 18.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:34.332159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_27a9cb907b773320caca1484",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.87,
"skin_id": "skin-ee71937714b6",
"listing_id": "502856892568442512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Impact Drill (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "M249 | Impact Drill",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee71937714b6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:41.626663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.03,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "517494388633156486",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:50.453504Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-6d3d5d849392",
"listing_id": "517494222852987790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d3d5d849392.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:03.651271Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-9973f96c93b5",
"listing_id": "490471993873234251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Storm Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9973f96c93b5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:00:03.971865Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-53f83414cf17",
"listing_id": "491598690699037238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Buff Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53f83414cf17.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:26.242515Z"
},
{
"price": 0.04,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "501731737288266737",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:20.049225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-58d507811bd8",
"listing_id": "523123888071251398",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58d507811bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:20.049225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-6c86170a7e6d",
"listing_id": "515242536107992765",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Blue Blast",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c86170a7e6d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:50.431881Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "514116636506055102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:46.154281Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-6d3d5d849392",
"listing_id": "493850490549886744",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d3d5d849392.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:45.036126Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New | Para Green 3.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 3.3% $66.33 Night 3.3% $33.70 Sour Grapes 10.0% $0.85 Ocean Topo 10.0% $0.83 Electric Blue 10.0% $0.76 | $186.52 +2125.7% | $10.08 +20.3% | 10.0% | +411.2% | $8.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.86 Sour Grapes 8.9% $0.85 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.76 | $186.52 +1145.1% | $19.58 +30.7% | 20.0% | +306.7% | $14.98 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 10.0% $186.52 Urban Rubble 10.0% $66.33 Night 10.0% $33.70 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.85 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.83 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.76 | $186.52 +679.4% | $29.07 +21.5% | 30.0% | +221.4% | $23.93 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.86 Sour Grapes 6.7% $0.85 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.76 | $186.52 +457.3% | $38.56 +15.2% | 40.0% | +171.9% | $33.47 | — |