The Chop Shop Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Factory New
Inputs
Army Sheen
1x $5.67
Runoff
1x $0.12
Plum Netting
1x $0.16
Grey Smoke
1x $0.20
Grey Smoke
3x $0.21
Blue Tac
2x $0.28
↓
Possible Outputs
Para Green
3.3% $186.52
Urban Rubble
3.3% $66.33
Night
3.3% $33.70
Ocean Topo
10.0% $0.87
Sour Grapes
10.0% $0.85
Electric Blue
10.0% $0.76
Max Win
$186.52 (+2273.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.09 (+28.3%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+448.5%
Cost
$7.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.86
Ask Price EV $10.09 (+28.3%)
Bid Price EV $8.41 (+6.9%)
Ask Profit $2.23 (+28.3%)
Bid Profit $0.55 (+6.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.68 (+21.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.23
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.55
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $186.52 (+2273.0%)
Worst Case $0.36 (-95.4%)
Volatility +448.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$87.66
Avg Loss -$7.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.36 (-95.4%)
Std Dev $35.25
Avg Norm Float 0.0687
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 138h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Army Sheen
—
Minimal Wear
$5.67 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Runoff
—
Factory New
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Plum Netting
—
Factory New
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Grey Smoke
—
Factory New
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Lime Hex
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Blue Tac
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 48S //TOTAL COST $7.86 //ASK PRICE EV $10.09 //BID PRICE EV $8.41 //ASK PROFIT $2.23 (+28.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.55 (+6.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $186.52 //VOLATILITY +448.5% //
Possible Outputs · 12
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$186.52
+$178.66
+2273.0%
$155.68
+$147.82
+1880.7%
$30.84
16.5%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$66.33
+$58.47
+743.9%
$49.07
+$41.21
+524.3%
$17.26
26.0%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$33.70
+$25.84
+328.8%
$32.43
+$24.57
+312.6%
$1.27
3.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.87
-$6.99
-88.9%
$0.76
-$7.10
-90.3%
$0.11
12.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.85
-$7.01
-89.2%
$0.78
-$7.08
-90.1%
$0.07
7.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.76
-$7.10
-90.3%
$0.73
-$7.13
-90.7%
$0.03
4.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.73
-$7.13
-90.7%
$0.69
-$7.17
-91.2%
$0.04
5.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.52
-$7.34
-93.4%
$0.48
-$7.38
-93.9%
$0.04
7.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.46
-$7.40
-94.1%
$0.43
-$7.43
-94.5%
$0.03
7.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.43
-$7.43
-94.5%
$0.42
-$7.44
-94.7%
$0.01
2.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.37
-$7.49
-95.3%
$0.36
-$7.50
-95.4%
$0.01
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.36
-$7.50
-95.4%
$0.34
-$7.52
-95.7%
$0.02
5.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-chopshop|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Consumer Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048104,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:53.459242Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7b6d780443fc",
"realistic_value": 0.52,
"optimistic_value": 0.52,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:25:17.383356Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b6d780443fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"realistic_value": 0.4635,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:46:48.424658Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"realistic_value": 0.87,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"conservative_value": 0.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:20:36.323735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"realistic_value": 0.7334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:29.494212Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.054976000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"realistic_value": 0.847,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"conservative_value": 0.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:08:32.291449Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04662177832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"realistic_value": 0.37,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:36.003942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"realistic_value": 0.36,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"conservative_value": 0.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:52.601892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05154,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"conservative_value": 0.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:55:41.710782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1108528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07884f77d452",
"realistic_value": 33.7,
"optimistic_value": 33,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Night",
"conservative_value": 32.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:49.361605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07884f77d452.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03436,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ee7b966c7ea7",
"realistic_value": 66.331,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 49.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:53:46.237650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee7b966c7ea7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.054976000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78d3855fd66e",
"realistic_value": 186.517,
"optimistic_value": 180,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Para Green",
"conservative_value": 155.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chop Shop Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Para Green (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:36.519701Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78d3855fd66e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_27a9cb907b773320caca1484",
"input_rarity": "Consumer Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.67,
"skin_id": "skin-51c3ca06a247",
"listing_id": "493850438107468792",
"collection_id": "collection-set-chopshop",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Army Sheen",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-51c3ca06a247.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:31.950502Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f2dd022eab22",
"listing_id": "525375688036288843",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Runoff (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Runoff",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2dd022eab22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:27.581076Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-4aa647360d8e",
"listing_id": "518620122759533332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Plum Netting (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Plum Netting",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4aa647360d8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:49:24.838071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-6d3d5d849392",
"listing_id": "509612292233351967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6d3d5d849392.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:45.679689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502747319",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:44.667926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "509612923502742711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:44.667926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-080ca3f34d18",
"listing_id": "492723793462158945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Grey Smoke",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-080ca3f34d18.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:44.667926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "509612923502750487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:01:25.240161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e6401ef3f5b7",
"listing_id": "511864888984131309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Lime Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6401ef3f5b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:33.220383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-23a748f6b597",
"listing_id": "501731789729155409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Blue Tac (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Blue Tac",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-23a748f6b597.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:01:25.240161Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Consumer Grade|Industrial Grade|normal|10|collection-set-chopshop:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chop Shop Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 6.7% $186.52 Urban Rubble 6.7% $66.33 Night 6.7% $33.70 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.87 Sour Grapes 8.9% $0.85 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.76 | $186.52 +1126.3% | $19.58 +28.7% | 20.0% | +302.1% | $15.21 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 10.0% $186.52 Urban Rubble 10.0% $66.33 Night 10.0% $33.70 Ocean Topo 7.8% $0.87 Sour Grapes 7.8% $0.85 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.76 | $186.52 +689.7% | $29.07 +23.1% | 30.0% | +224.3% | $23.62 | — |
The Chop Shop Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Para Green 13.3% $186.52 Urban Rubble 13.3% $66.33 Night 13.3% $33.70 Ocean Topo 6.7% $0.87 Sour Grapes 6.7% $0.85 Electric Blue 6.7% $0.76 | $186.52 +460.1% | $38.56 +15.8% | 40.0% | +172.8% | $33.30 | — |