The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Light Box
3x $0.21
Dark Sigil
2x $0.31
Motorized
2x $0.32
Mockingbird
1x $0.16
Nexus
1x $0.23
Sure Grip
1x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
14.0% $4.45
Serpent Strike
6.0% $4.41
Block-18
14.0% $4.19
Just Smile
14.0% $3.34
Rising Sun
6.0% $3.19
Control
6.0% $2.76
Max Win
$4.45 (+63.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.24 (+18.7%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+32.6%
Cost
$2.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.73
Ask Price EV $3.24 (+18.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.90 (+6.1%)
Ask Profit $0.51 (+18.7%)
Bid Profit $0.17 (+6.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+12.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.17
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $4.45 (+63.1%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-30.2%)
Volatility +32.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 14.0%
Avg Win +$1.10
Avg Loss -$0.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-30.2%)
Std Dev $0.89
Avg Norm Float 0.1467
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 153h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 01S //TOTAL COST $2.73 //ASK PRICE EV $3.24 //BID PRICE EV $2.90 //ASK PROFIT $0.51 (+18.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.17 (+6.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $4.45 //VOLATILITY +32.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.45
+$1.72
+63.1%
$3.77
+$1.04
+38.1%
$0.68
15.3%
—
BIG WIN
6.0%
$4.41
+$1.68
+61.5%
$3.69
+$0.96
+35.2%
$0.72
16.3%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.19
+$1.46
+53.5%
$3.88
+$1.15
+42.1%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN
14.0%
$3.34
+$0.61
+22.5%
$2.85
+$0.12
+4.4%
$0.49
14.8%
—
WIN
6.0%
$3.19
+$0.46
+17.0%
$2.88
+$0.15
+5.5%
$0.31
9.8%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$2.76
+$0.03
+1.1%
$2.44
-$0.29
-10.6%
$0.32
11.6%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$2.65
-$0.08
-2.9%
$2.60
-$0.13
-4.8%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.54
-$0.19
-7.0%
$2.16
-$0.57
-20.9%
$0.38
15.0%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.51
-$0.22
-8.0%
$2.24
-$0.49
-17.9%
$0.27
10.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.90
-$0.83
-30.2%
$1.85
-$0.88
-32.2%
$0.05
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:12.204578Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0985909375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4535,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.241962Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3435,
"optimistic_value": 3.34,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:08.942639Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0908115164,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:32.054019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0836418,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.41,
"optimistic_value": 4.41,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:12.672103Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.11724452630000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 2.7605,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 2.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T14:23:45.741024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 3.194,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:48.674849Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.13948356026,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 2.5105,
"optimistic_value": 2.5,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:51.608915Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.102718,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 2.54,
"optimistic_value": 2.54,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:27:42.829372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_25deaf5273725a14ef77bfd3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:53.878953Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613142168773471",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "494976443342801634",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "500605942756425671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:41.952343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "652599675000054662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:33.034128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "499479989897250085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:50.476040Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:7+collection-set-community-35:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Tosai 6.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.40 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Just Smile 14.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +125.0% | $2.26 +15.1% | 40.0% | +48.3% | $1.96 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.19 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +64.9% | $3.22 +19.2% | 60.0% | +24.3% | $2.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.21 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +60.8% | $3.27 +18.0% | 56.0% | +23.5% | $2.77 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.46 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.19 Control 10.0% $2.76 | $4.46 +63.4% | $3.20 +17.1% | 60.0% | +23.9% | $2.73 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.21 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +57.4% | $3.29 +16.3% | 58.0% | +22.9% | $2.83 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Just Smile 8.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 12.0% $3.19 Control 12.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +62.5% | $3.17 +15.8% | 60.0% | +23.6% | $2.74 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 6.0% $4.46 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Just Smile 6.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 14.0% $3.19 Control 14.0% $2.76 | $4.46 +58.7% | $3.15 +12.2% | 46.0% | +22.9% | $2.81 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  13.3% $23.51 Searing Rage  20.0% $15.95 Jawbreaker  13.3% $14.90 Shinobu  20.0% $14.72 Olympus  13.3% $8.60 K.O. Factory  20.0% $8.23 | $23.51 +103.7% | $14.05 +21.7% | 66.7% | +42.1% | $11.54 | — |