The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
2x $0.36
Slag
1x $0.37
Dezastre
1x $0.61
Light Box
1x $0.76
Irezumi
1x $1.56
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
14.0% $13.06
Rising Sun
6.0% $12.94
Control
6.0% $10.05
Wave Breaker
6.0% $9.41
Just Smile
14.0% $9.31
Block-18
14.0% $8.90
Max Win
$13.06 (+48.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.87 (+1.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+31.1%
Cost
$8.77
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $8.77
Ask Price EV $8.87 (+1.2%)
Bid Price EV $7.99 (-8.9%)
Ask Profit $0.10 (+1.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.78 (-8.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.88 (+10.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.78
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+48.9%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-52.9%)
Volatility +31.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.77
Avg Loss -$2.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-52.9%)
Std Dev $2.72
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 136h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Ask-Side Flip · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 41S //TOTAL COST $8.77 //ASK PRICE EV $8.87 //BID PRICE EV $7.99 //ASK PROFIT $0.10 (+1.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.78 (-8.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +31.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$13.06
+$4.29
+48.9%
$12.03
+$3.26
+37.2%
$1.03
7.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$12.94
+$4.17
+47.5%
$11.82
+$3.05
+34.8%
$1.12
8.6%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$10.05
+$1.28
+14.6%
$8.52
-$0.25
-2.9%
$1.53
15.2%
—
SMALL WIN
6.0%
$9.41
+$0.64
+7.3%
$8.98
+$0.21
+2.4%
$0.43
4.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$9.31
+$0.54
+6.2%
$7.84
-$0.93
-10.6%
$1.47
15.8%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$8.90
+$0.13
+1.4%
$7.77
-$1.00
-11.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$8.70
-$0.07
-0.8%
$7.63
-$1.14
-13.0%
$1.07
12.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$7.89
-$0.88
-10.0%
$7.43
-$1.34
-15.3%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$5.82
-$2.95
-33.7%
$5.63
-$3.14
-35.8%
$0.19
3.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.13
-$4.64
-52.9%
$3.76
-$5.01
-57.1%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.746840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0469909375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:54.948744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0432830684,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:23.384975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0398658,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055881710300000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 12.938,
"optimistic_value": 12.49,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:19.304803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06648139706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 9.408,
"optimistic_value": 9.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:12.966901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.818,
"optimistic_value": 5.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:37.206000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_25deaf5273725a14ef77bfd3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:43.162031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:41.601363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.424064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:04.799490Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:02.839695Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:57.782748Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:28.316634Z"
},
{
"price": 1.52,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "524249735516593395",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:47.077457Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:25:47.077457Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:7+collection-set-community-35:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $3.06 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +64.8% | $3.23 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.5% | $2.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Tosai 6.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Just Smile 14.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +127.3% | $2.25 +15.9% | 40.0% | +48.8% | $1.94 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.11 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +63.7% | $3.26 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.1% | $2.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.19 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +61.9% | $3.29 +19.5% | 60.0% | +23.7% | $2.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.07 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.6% | $3.20 +18.2% | 60.0% | +24.3% | $2.71 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.06 Control 10.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.0% | $3.18 +16.9% | 60.0% | +24.2% | $2.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 Just Smile 8.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +130.9% | $2.20 +15.4% | 40.0% | +51.2% | $1.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 6.0% $2.37 Analog Input 6.0% $1.90 Just Smile 6.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +127.3% | $2.19 +12.7% | 40.0% | +51.0% | $1.94 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.60 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.23 | $23.51 +98.9% | $14.32 +21.1% | 66.7% | +43.3% | $11.82 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +61.5% | $100.58 +19.8% | 50.0% | +37.4% | $83.96 | — |