The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Grip
1x $0.39
Black Sand
1x $0.88
Oxide Blaze
1x $1.09
Night Riot
3x $1.87
Royal Baroque
3x $1.40
Reef Grief
1x $2.25
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
20.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
20.0% $13.71
SWAG-7
12.0% $10.64
Arctic Wolf
12.0% $9.64
Wild Six
12.0% $6.02
Moonrise
12.0% $5.34
Max Win
$38.92 (+111.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.78 (-19.6%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+68.0%
Cost
$18.39
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.39
Ask Price EV $14.78 (-19.6%)
Bid Price EV $13.66 (-25.7%)
Ask Profit $-3.61 (-19.6%)
Bid Profit $-4.73 (-25.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.12 (+6.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.61
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.73
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+111.6%)
Worst Case $3.81 (-79.3%)
Volatility +68.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$20.53
Avg Loss -$9.65
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.81 (-79.3%)
Std Dev $12.51
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 100h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
—
Factory New
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$1.87 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.77 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 16S //TOTAL COST $18.39 //ASK PRICE EV $14.78 //BID PRICE EV $13.66 //ASK PROFIT $-3.61 (-19.6%) //BID PROFIT $-4.73 (-25.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +68.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$38.92
+$20.53
+111.6%
$34.38
+$15.99
+86.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$13.71
-$4.68
-25.4%
$13.24
-$5.15
-28.0%
$0.47
3.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$10.64
-$7.75
-42.2%
$10.08
-$8.31
-45.2%
$0.56
5.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$9.64
-$8.75
-47.6%
$9.51
-$8.88
-48.3%
$0.13
1.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$6.02
-$12.37
-67.2%
$5.95
-$12.44
-67.6%
$0.07
1.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$5.34
-$13.06
-71.0%
$5.26
-$13.13
-71.4%
$0.08
1.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$3.81
-$14.58
-79.3%
$3.65
-$14.74
-80.2%
$0.16
4.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.71,
"optimistic_value": 13.64,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:42.032596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04545450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.335,
"optimistic_value": 5.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:08.215705Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0643356,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 10.6385,
"optimistic_value": 10.6,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 10.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:38:29.372480Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.03846150000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.807,
"optimistic_value": 3.8,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:23.122188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.05594400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 6.0245,
"optimistic_value": 6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 5.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:31:07.011710Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.05594400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 9.641,
"optimistic_value": 9.62,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 9.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:33:54.538014Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_23a7765ca509de38fdc6d75f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:36.514488Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-cbffebebb7f3",
"listing_id": "524249735517716595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cbffebebb7f3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:17.095714Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-ae8080ca847c",
"listing_id": "507361289454031933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Oxide Blaze",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ae8080ca847c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:20.545021Z"
},
{
"price": 1.87,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "490471993876028607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:52.426174Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "494976224706225426",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:52.426174Z"
},
{
"price": 2.77,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "520872035663982948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:52.426174Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:39.646036Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:39.646036Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "507361289453613217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:03.986584Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:14.272281Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.66 Moonrise 12.0% $2.25 Lionfish 12.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 12.0% $0.79 Wild Six 12.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +330.4% | $5.44 +29.4% | 40.0% | +151.5% | $4.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.44 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.79 Wild Six 10.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +268.2% | $6.45 +31.4% | 50.0% | +136.5% | $4.91 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.44 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.77 Wild Six 8.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +205.3% | $7.51 +26.9% | 30.0% | +116.3% | $5.92 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.66 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.79 Wild Six 6.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +160.8% | $8.65 +24.9% | 35.0% | +99.3% | $6.93 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.44 Moonrise 14.0% $2.25 Lionfish 14.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 14.0% $0.79 Wild Six 14.0% $0.73 | $18.08 +418.0% | $4.33 +24.2% | 30.0% | +167.1% | $3.49 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.66 Moonrise 2.0% $5.34 Lionfish 2.0% $3.81 SWAG-7 2.0% $1.72 Arctic Wolf 2.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +93.1% | $23.94 +18.7% | 45.0% | +67.2% | $20.16 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.66 Moonrise 4.0% $5.34 Lionfish 4.0% $3.81 SWAG-7 4.0% $1.72 Arctic Wolf 4.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +108.9% | $21.59 +15.9% | 40.0% | +76.0% | $18.63 | — |