The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Poultrygeist
1x $0.29
Foresight
1x $0.30
Ensnared
1x $0.32
Scrawl
1x $0.41
Bock Blocks
5x $0.47
Fusion
1x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
12.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
12.0% $10.78
Amberline
12.0% $6.48
Galigator
12.0% $5.68
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $4.73
Night Terror
8.0% $4.12
Max Win
$16.94 (+217.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.31 (+18.5%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+90.2%
Cost
$5.33
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.33
Ask Price EV $6.31 (+18.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.33 (+0.1%)
Ask Profit $0.98 (+18.5%)
Bid Profit $0.00 (+0.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.98 (+18.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.98
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.00
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+217.7%)
Worst Case $1.21 (-77.3%)
Volatility +90.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$4.64
Avg Loss -$2.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.21 (-77.3%)
Std Dev $4.81
Avg Norm Float 0.1498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 142h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 10S //TOTAL COST $5.33 //ASK PRICE EV $6.31 //BID PRICE EV $5.33 //ASK PROFIT $0.98 (+18.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.00 (+0.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +90.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$16.94
+$11.61
+217.7%
$14.31
+$8.98
+168.5%
$2.63
15.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.78
+$5.45
+102.2%
$9.15
+$3.82
+71.7%
$1.63
15.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$6.48
+$1.15
+21.7%
$4.92
-$0.41
-7.7%
$1.56
24.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$5.68
+$0.35
+6.6%
$4.89
-$0.44
-8.3%
$0.79
13.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$4.73
-$0.60
-11.2%
$4.43
-$0.90
-16.9%
$0.30
6.4%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.12
-$1.21
-22.6%
$3.46
-$1.87
-35.1%
$0.66
16.1%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$3.94
-$1.39
-26.1%
$3.26
-$2.07
-38.8%
$0.68
17.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.46
-$3.87
-72.6%
$1.22
-$4.11
-77.1%
$0.24
16.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.28
-$4.05
-76.0%
$1.19
-$4.14
-77.7%
$0.09
6.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.21
-$4.12
-77.3%
$1.00
-$4.33
-81.2%
$0.21
17.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.68,
"optimistic_value": 5.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:29.954532Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.484,
"optimistic_value": 6.4,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:57:52.879933Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.7305,
"optimistic_value": 4.72,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:31.788881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.4609999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:38.721143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.104874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.10037940000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.2775,
"optimistic_value": 1.26,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:21.070411Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.11386320000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.07491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.21,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:46.927058Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e5703de715d8bf26af2e98b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "509612292204674439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.552949Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "509612292238590183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:48.127072Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "514116523130036466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:22.961979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "507361289452933933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:40.760546Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487189339291906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:00.640696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613036859925607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:00.640696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:07.566102Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:00.640696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:42.803981Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:42.803981Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +238.9% | $18.00 +19.0% | 36.0% | +84.6% | $15.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.23 Amberline 12.0% $3.22 Night Terror 8.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +194.6% | $3.78 +4.2% | 24.0% | +70.7% | $3.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +216.5% | $20.01 +23.5% | 42.0% | +80.8% | $16.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +186.3% | $22.02 +22.9% | 48.0% | +74.6% | $17.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.42 Galigator 10.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.81 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +261.1% | $5.66 +20.8% | 50.0% | +84.5% | $4.69 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.48 Galigator 8.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.81 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +298.5% | $5.02 +18.0% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $4.25 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 6.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 6.0% $6.12 Galigator 6.0% $3.26 Amberline 6.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $3.19 Night Terror 14.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +371.1% | $2.64 +16.4% | 44.0% | +95.2% | $2.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 4.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 4.0% $6.12 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 Galigator 4.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $3.24 | $10.69 +316.1% | $2.89 +12.5% | 52.0% | +70.5% | $2.57 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +124.2% | $24.04 +5.1% | 36.0% | +59.9% | $22.87 | — |