The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Scrawl
1x $0.41
Lifted Spirits
2x $1.43
Necro Jr.
1x $2.16
Bock Blocks
3x $0.87
RMX
3x $1.62
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
12.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
12.0% $31.66
Amberline
12.0% $18.87
Galigator
12.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $13.92
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $10.13
Max Win
$51.27 (+238.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.00 (+19.0%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+98.1%
Cost
$15.13
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.13
Ask Price EV $18.00 (+19.0%)
Bid Price EV $15.38 (+1.7%)
Ask Profit $2.87 (+19.0%)
Bid Profit $0.25 (+1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.62 (+17.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.87
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+238.9%)
Worst Case $2.45 (-83.8%)
Volatility +98.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$18.80
Avg Loss -$6.09
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.45 (-83.8%)
Std Dev $14.85
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 143h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 52S //TOTAL COST $15.13 //ASK PRICE EV $18.00 //BID PRICE EV $15.38 //ASK PROFIT $2.87 (+19.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.25 (+1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +98.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$51.27
+$36.14
+238.9%
$43.51
+$28.38
+187.6%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$31.66
+$16.53
+109.2%
$29.45
+$14.32
+94.6%
$2.21
7.0%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$18.87
+$3.74
+24.7%
$12.97
-$2.16
-14.3%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$14.51
-$0.62
-4.1%
$13.05
-$2.08
-13.7%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$13.92
-$1.21
-8.0%
$11.82
-$3.31
-21.9%
$2.10
15.1%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$10.13
-$5.00
-33.1%
$8.42
-$6.71
-44.3%
$1.71
16.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$8.17
-$6.96
-46.0%
$7.88
-$7.25
-47.9%
$0.29
3.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$5.94
-$9.19
-60.7%
$5.08
-$10.05
-66.4%
$0.86
14.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.99
-$12.15
-80.3%
$2.62
-$12.51
-82.7%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.45
-$12.68
-83.8%
$2.11
-$13.02
-86.1%
$0.34
13.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.917,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.939,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:21.774990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 8.171,
"optimistic_value": 8.01,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:04.842408Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0468732,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0531696,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.45,
"optimistic_value": 2.45,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:11.374537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1e5703de715d8bf26af2e98b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "507361289452933933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:40.760546Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235337024831560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:37.414569Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:37.414569Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746022670275764",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:24.633374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:10.494064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:10.494064Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242423034647657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "517493591317579006",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "492724538182380753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375688037272075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-community-37:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 12.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 12.0% $10.78 Amberline 12.0% $6.48 Galigator 12.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $4.73 Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +217.7% | $6.31 +18.5% | 48.0% | +76.6% | $5.33 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $3.23 Amberline 12.0% $3.22 Night Terror 8.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +194.6% | $3.78 +4.2% | 24.0% | +70.7% | $3.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +216.5% | $20.01 +23.5% | 42.0% | +80.8% | $16.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +186.3% | $22.02 +22.9% | 48.0% | +74.6% | $17.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.42 Galigator 10.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.81 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +261.1% | $5.66 +20.8% | 50.0% | +84.5% | $4.69 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.48 Galigator 8.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.81 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +298.5% | $5.02 +18.0% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $4.25 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 6.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 6.0% $6.12 Galigator 6.0% $3.26 Amberline 6.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $3.19 Night Terror 14.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +371.1% | $2.64 +16.4% | 44.0% | +95.2% | $2.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 4.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 4.0% $6.12 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 Galigator 4.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $3.24 | $10.69 +316.1% | $2.89 +12.5% | 52.0% | +70.5% | $2.57 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +124.2% | $24.04 +5.1% | 36.0% | +59.9% | $22.87 | — |