The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wash me plz
1x $0.14
Wall Bang
1x $0.17
Robin's Egg
2x $0.12
Naval Shred Camo
2x $0.13
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.14
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.23
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Teal Graf
5.0% $2.19
Metallic Squeezer
5.0% $2.18
Reef Grief
16.0% $2.09
Yeti Camo
16.0% $1.69
Max Win
$3.23 (+98.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.06 (+26.7%)
Win %
74.0%
Volatility
+43.9%
Cost
$1.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.63
Ask Price EV $2.06 (+26.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.98 (+21.3%)
Ask Profit $0.43 (+26.7%)
Bid Profit $0.35 (+21.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 74.0%
Loss Probability 26.0%
Best Case $3.23 (+98.4%)
Worst Case $1.14 (-30.0%)
Volatility +43.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 26.0%
Avg Win +$0.75
Avg Loss -$0.47
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.14 (-30.0%)
Std Dev $0.71
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 22h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 07S //TOTAL COST $1.63 //ASK PRICE EV $2.06 //BID PRICE EV $1.98 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+26.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.35 (+21.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 74.0% //BEST CASE $3.23 //VOLATILITY +43.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.23
+$1.60
+98.4%
$3.05
+$1.42
+87.1%
$0.18
5.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.64
+$1.01
+62.2%
$2.62
+$0.99
+60.7%
$0.02
0.9%
—
WIN
5.0%
$2.19
+$0.56
+34.6%
$2.13
+$0.50
+30.7%
$0.06
2.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$2.18
+$0.55
+33.7%
$2.16
+$0.53
+32.5%
$0.02
0.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.09
+$0.46
+28.4%
$1.99
+$0.36
+22.1%
$0.10
4.9%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$1.69
+$0.05
+3.4%
$1.62
-$0.01
-0.6%
$0.06
3.9%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$1.22
-$0.41
-25.3%
$1.12
-$0.51
-31.3%
$0.10
8.0%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$1.15
-$0.48
-29.2%
$1.10
-$0.53
-32.5%
$0.05
4.6%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.14
-$0.49
-30.0%
$1.04
-$0.59
-36.2%
$0.10
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06976199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.234,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:48:03.982638Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08138899999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.685,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:38.890512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0755755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06976199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:09.950617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06976199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.0925,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:57.814350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06976199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.18,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:48.812052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.058135,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.194,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.486607Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.104643,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 1.2169999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:42:04.443708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.11627,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 1.1535,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 1.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:20.771417Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1a7d923f84f79fcbf0e9fe54",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "494976390477273234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:10.727345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "501731789729722517",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:05.071087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "517494441497829310",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:36.511997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "499480042827839269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:00.756882Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542379577332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:38.793688Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:36.511997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:00.756882Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:39.440680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:40.150983Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:20:40.150983Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.23 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $2.23 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.19 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.09 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.69 | $3.23 +100.9% | $2.02 +25.5% | 71.0% | +33.0% | $1.61 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 12.0% $3.23 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.19 Metallic Squeezer 10.0% $2.18 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.09 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.69 | $3.23 +104.7% | $1.97 +24.7% | 68.0% | +32.7% | $1.58 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.23 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.18 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.14 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.72 | $3.23 +94.8% | $1.92 +15.5% | 65.0% | +29.9% | $1.66 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.28 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 15.0% $2.24 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.19 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.09 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.79 | $3.28 +88.4% | $1.90 +9.0% | 62.0% | +27.7% | $1.74 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  30.0% $6.94 Eye of Zapems  13.3% $4.33 Monster Melt  13.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels  13.3% $3.78 Royal Guard  30.0% $1.14 | $6.94 +110.4% | $4.04 +22.3% | 70.0% | +68.3% | $3.30 | — |