The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wall Bang
1x $0.23
Wash me plz
1x $1.24
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Turquoise Pour
5x $0.37
Rose Nacre
2x $0.57
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipsqueak
5.0% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
5.0% $5.10
Yeti Camo
16.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.20
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $2.64
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.82 (+32.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.22 (-37.7%)
Win %
5.0%
Volatility
+23.8%
Cost
$5.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.16
Ask Price EV $3.22 (-37.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.15 (-39.0%)
Ask Profit $-1.94 (-37.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.01 (-39.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+1.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.94
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.01
Risk
Win Probability 5.0%
Loss Probability 95.0%
Best Case $6.82 (+32.2%)
Worst Case $2.04 (-60.5%)
Volatility +23.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 74.0%
Avg Win +$1.66
Avg Loss -$2.13
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.04 (-60.5%)
Std Dev $1.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 150h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$1.24 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 46S //TOTAL COST $5.16 //ASK PRICE EV $3.22 //BID PRICE EV $3.15 //ASK PROFIT $-1.94 (-37.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.01 (-39.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 5.0% //BEST CASE $6.82 //VOLATILITY +23.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
5.0%
$6.82
+$1.66
+32.2%
$6.71
+$1.55
+30.0%
$0.11
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$5.10
-$0.06
-1.2%
$4.90
-$0.26
-5.0%
$0.20
3.9%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.46
-$0.70
-13.6%
$4.43
-$0.73
-14.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.20
-$1.96
-37.9%
$3.05
-$2.11
-40.9%
$0.15
4.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.64
-$2.52
-48.8%
$2.62
-$2.54
-49.2%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.64
-$2.52
-48.8%
$2.62
-$2.54
-49.2%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.24
-$2.92
-56.5%
$2.13
-$3.03
-58.7%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.18
-$2.98
-57.8%
$2.16
-$3.00
-58.1%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.04
-$3.12
-60.5%
$1.99
-$3.17
-61.4%
$0.05
2.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.2045,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:31.826046Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.045396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:13.790146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:19.184396Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.04,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:12.778832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.18,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:25.601747Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.03492,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:38.589386Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.062856,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:00.365094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1a7d923f84f79fcbf0e9fe54",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "514116688949642406",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:06.954853Z"
},
{
"price": 1.24,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "505109542379564984",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:59.039746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:54.947638Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "501731842661604281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:37.275100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:37.275100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:37.275100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:37.275100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "520871291149494264",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:37.275100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "529879340432181216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:27.155695Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "518620288314800704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:27.155695Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Yeti Camo 16.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.20 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $2.64 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 Teal Graf 5.0% $2.24 Metallic Squeezer 5.0% $2.18 | $4.46 +69.6% | $2.74 +4.1% | 64.0% | +27.9% | $2.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 14.0% $1.07 Reef Grief 14.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.04 Metallic Squeezer 7.5% $0.75 | $1.83 +121.0% | $1.04 +24.8% | 70.0% | +37.6% | $0.83 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.08 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.07 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.04 Metallic Squeezer 10.0% $0.75 | $1.83 +118.4% | $0.98 +16.2% | 60.0% | +37.6% | $0.84 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.23 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.18 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.14 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.72 | $3.23 +94.8% | $1.92 +15.5% | 65.0% | +29.9% | $1.66 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.26 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Metallic Squeezer 15.0% $2.18 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.14 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.83 | $3.26 +89.4% | $1.88 +9.2% | 62.0% | +27.6% | $1.72 | — |