The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Gallery Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.35
Slag
1x $0.50
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Dezastre
3x $0.61
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Rapid Transit
2.0% $36.14
Turbine
2.0% $36.07
Saibā Oni
2.0% $18.57
Hydro Strike
2.0% $16.76
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Randy Rush
2.0% $9.60
Max Win
$36.14 (+246.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.15 (-2.7%)
Win %
26.0%
Volatility
+59.6%
Cost
$10.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.43
Ask Price EV $10.15 (-2.7%)
Bid Price EV $8.95 (-14.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.28 (-2.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.48 (-14.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.20 (+11.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.48
Risk
Win Probability 26.0%
Loss Probability 74.0%
Best Case $36.14 (+246.5%)
Worst Case $4.10 (-60.7%)
Volatility +59.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$6.88
Avg Loss -$2.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.10 (-60.7%)
Std Dev $6.22
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 147h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Hypnosis
—
Minimal Wear
$1.01 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 52S //TOTAL COST $10.43 //ASK PRICE EV $10.15 //BID PRICE EV $8.95 //ASK PROFIT $-0.28 (-2.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.48 (-14.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.0% //BEST CASE $36.14 //VOLATILITY +59.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.0%
$36.14
+$25.71
+246.5%
$27.00
+$16.57
+158.9%
$9.14
25.3%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$36.07
+$25.64
+245.8%
$32.04
+$21.61
+207.2%
$4.03
11.2%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$18.57
+$8.14
+78.1%
$15.73
+$5.30
+50.8%
$2.84
15.3%
—
BIG WIN
2.0%
$16.76
+$6.33
+60.7%
$14.28
+$3.85
+36.9%
$2.48
14.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$2.63
+25.2%
$12.03
+$1.60
+15.3%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$9.60
-$0.83
-7.9%
$8.92
-$1.51
-14.5%
$0.68
7.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.41
-$1.03
-9.8%
$7.86
-$2.57
-24.6%
$1.54
16.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$1.53
-14.7%
$7.77
-$2.66
-25.5%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$2.54
-24.4%
$7.43
-$3.00
-28.8%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.10
-$6.33
-60.7%
$3.74
-$6.69
-64.1%
$0.36
8.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-34|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-34"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:28.937376Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0470178125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.405,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:40.434105Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0433078228,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.100499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 4.02,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:48.662901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.056083231639999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8300a7de7ac6",
"realistic_value": 16.759,
"optimistic_value": 16.29,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike",
"conservative_value": 14.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-34",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gallery Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:52.350675Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300a7de7ac6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.059483,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6bdcfb1366c6",
"realistic_value": 36.0705,
"optimistic_value": 35.57,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Turbine",
"conservative_value": 32.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-34",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gallery Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Turbine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T08:34:09.254161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6bdcfb1366c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0461868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1328a63c72b5",
"realistic_value": 18.573,
"optimistic_value": 18.09,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Saibā Oni",
"conservative_value": 15.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-34",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gallery Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:48.491520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1328a63c72b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-39f40ce9d13d",
"realistic_value": 9.600999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Randy Rush",
"conservative_value": 8.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-34",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gallery Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:31:09.007960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39f40ce9d13d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-05b22d280618",
"realistic_value": 36.1385,
"optimistic_value": 35.61,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Rapid Transit",
"conservative_value": 27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-34",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gallery Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:52.036973Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05b22d280618.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_14fff711499b38c83a6099d2",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:00.907125Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:06.772802Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:20.323707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:59.974746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:30.668108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:41.322444Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:10.606899Z"
},
{
"price": 2.1,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "499479937455276409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:14.398869Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:14.398869Z"
},
{
"price": 1.01,
"skin_id": "skin-c7c133807ad6",
"listing_id": "491598690700234022",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-34",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Hypnosis",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c7c133807ad6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:24.312340Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:9+collection-set-community-34:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Gallery Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Rapid Transit 2.0% $14.22 Turbine 2.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 2.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 2.0% $6.39 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $14.22 +324.6% | $3.91 +16.7% | 46.0% | +62.3% | $3.35 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Gallery Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Saibā Oni 2.0% $8.54 Turbine 2.0% $5.05 Rapid Transit 2.0% $4.35 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Hydro Strike 2.0% $2.89 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.30 | $8.54 +271.3% | $2.52 +9.6% | 44.0% | +52.0% | $2.30 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Gallery Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rapid Transit 8.0% $14.22 Turbine 8.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 8.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 8.0% $6.39 Randy Rush 8.0% $4.44 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $14.22 +240.3% | $5.10 +22.0% | 52.0% | +85.4% | $4.18 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Gallery Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rapid Transit 6.0% $14.22 Turbine 6.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 6.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 6.0% $6.39 Randy Rush 6.0% $4.44 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $14.22 +289.7% | $4.40 +20.6% | 44.0% | +92.4% | $3.65 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Gallery Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rapid Transit 10.0% $14.22 Turbine 10.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 10.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 10.0% $6.39 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Randy Rush 10.0% $3.93 | $14.22 +197.6% | $5.75 +20.2% | 40.0% | +77.4% | $4.78 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Gallery Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Rapid Transit 4.0% $14.22 Turbine 4.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 4.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 4.0% $6.39 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Randy Rush 4.0% $4.44 | $14.22 +277.3% | $4.52 +19.9% | 52.0% | +71.9% | $3.77 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Gallery Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rapid Transit 12.0% $14.22 Turbine 12.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 12.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 12.0% $6.39 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Randy Rush 12.0% $3.93 | $14.22 +162.4% | $6.43 +18.7% | 48.0% | +69.0% | $5.42 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Gallery Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rapid Transit 14.0% $14.22 Turbine 14.0% $12.89 Saibā Oni 14.0% $8.54 Hydro Strike 14.0% $6.39 Randy Rush 14.0% $4.44 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 | $14.22 +125.1% | $7.20 +13.9% | 56.0% | +57.9% | $6.32 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Gallery Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Rapid Transit 18.0% $36.14 Turbine 18.0% $36.07 Saibā Oni 18.0% $18.57 Hydro Strike 18.0% $16.76 Randy Rush 18.0% $9.60 Block-18 2.0% $8.90 | $36.14 +86.1% | $21.55 +11.0% | 36.0% | +54.2% | $19.42 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Gallery Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | The Outsiders  3.3% $30.72 Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Neo-Noir  3.3% $13.26 Epicenter  3.3% $12.47 Olympus  30.0% $8.56 | $30.72 +119.1% | $15.97 +13.9% | 63.3% | +46.1% | $14.02 | — |