The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Yeti Camo
1x $1.92
Cobalt Paisley
1x $3.65
Royal Baroque
3x $3.96
Blush Pour
3x $1.42
Shredded
2x $1.78
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $38.92
Mulberry
16.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
16.7% $17.44
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $16.98
Royal Guard
25.0% $13.61
Max Win
$38.92 (+43.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.44 (-9.8%)
Win %
41.7%
Volatility
+39.2%
Cost
$27.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.09
Ask Price EV $24.44 (-9.8%)
Bid Price EV $22.68 (-16.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.65 (-9.8%)
Bid Profit $-4.41 (-16.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.76 (+6.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.65
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.41
Risk
Win Probability 41.7%
Loss Probability 58.3%
Best Case $38.92 (+43.7%)
Worst Case $13.61 (-49.8%)
Volatility +39.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 58.3%
Avg Win +$9.63
Avg Loss -$11.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.61 (-49.8%)
Std Dev $10.61
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 139h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 32S //TOTAL COST $27.09 //ASK PRICE EV $24.44 //BID PRICE EV $22.68 //ASK PROFIT $-2.65 (-9.8%) //BID PROFIT $-4.41 (-16.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 41.7% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +39.2% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
25.0%
$38.92
+$11.83
+43.7%
$34.38
+$7.29
+26.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
WIN
16.7%
$33.42
+$6.33
+23.4%
$31.48
+$4.39
+16.2%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$17.44
-$9.66
-35.6%
$16.69
-$10.40
-38.4%
$0.74
4.3%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$16.98
-$10.11
-37.3%
$16.48
-$10.61
-39.2%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$13.61
-$13.48
-49.8%
$13.24
-$13.85
-51.1%
$0.37
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.6115,
"optimistic_value": 13.51,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:18.911301Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04683300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.435,
"optimistic_value": 17.4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:09.181238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0cfac29eb680494633180ab5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "493850490549146908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:47.745051Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.756353Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "506234592363569076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "649222707046356376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:14.999732Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "500605889841179615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:49.693536Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.22 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +124.7% | $4.05 +30.9% | 58.3% | +71.2% | $3.09 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.02 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.50 | $18.08 +106.8% | $10.69 +22.4% | 41.7% | +63.8% | $8.74 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.61 | $38.92 +90.6% | $24.44 +19.7% | 41.7% | +52.0% | $20.42 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.91 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.22 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.93 +105.7% | $3.74 +10.9% | 41.7% | +65.4% | $3.37 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.28 | $6.94 +132.2% | $4.03 +34.7% | 61.7% | +62.7% | $2.99 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +128.4% | $4.03 +32.7% | 60.0% | +67.3% | $3.04 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.28 | $6.94 +121.1% | $4.08 +29.8% | 55.0% | +78.6% | $3.14 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +121.1% | $4.06 +29.2% | 56.7% | +74.6% | $3.14 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49 | $18.08 +130.6% | $9.76 +24.5% | 35.0% | +61.5% | $7.84 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61 | $38.92 +84.1% | $25.90 +22.5% | 48.3% | +58.2% | $21.14 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.44 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.61 | $38.92 +85.9% | $25.54 +21.9% | 46.7% | +56.9% | $20.94 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.66 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.49 | $18.08 +122.3% | $9.87 +21.4% | 36.7% | +62.9% | $8.13 | — |