The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.28
Yeti Camo
2x $0.28
Reef Grief
1x $0.29
Royal Baroque
1x $0.38
Shredded
3x $0.26
Blush Pour
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $6.94
Glitched Paint
16.7% $5.03
Mulberry
16.7% $4.72
Bleeding Edge
16.7% $2.20
Royal Guard
25.0% $1.47
Max Win
$6.94 (+126.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.10 (+33.8%)
Win %
58.3%
Volatility
+69.8%
Cost
$3.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.06
Ask Price EV $4.10 (+33.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.50 (+14.5%)
Ask Profit $1.04 (+33.8%)
Bid Profit $0.44 (+14.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.59 (+19.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.04
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.44
Risk
Win Probability 58.3%
Loss Probability 41.7%
Best Case $6.94 (+126.9%)
Worst Case $1.47 (-51.9%)
Volatility +69.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 41.7%
Avg Win +$2.70
Avg Loss -$1.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.47 (-51.9%)
Std Dev $2.14
Avg Norm Float 0.5930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 139h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 38S //TOTAL COST $3.06 //ASK PRICE EV $4.10 //BID PRICE EV $3.50 //ASK PROFIT $1.04 (+33.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.44 (+14.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 58.3% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +69.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.94
+$3.88
+126.9%
$6.03
+$2.97
+97.1%
$0.91
13.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$5.03
+$1.97
+64.3%
$4.61
+$1.55
+50.7%
$0.42
8.3%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$4.72
+$1.66
+54.4%
$3.86
+$0.80
+26.1%
$0.86
18.3%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$2.20
-$0.86
-28.2%
$1.90
-$1.16
-37.9%
$0.30
13.5%
—
NUKE THIN BID
25.0%
$1.47
-$1.59
-51.9%
$1.07
-$1.99
-65.0%
$0.40
27.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.4447275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.9435,
"optimistic_value": 6.8,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 6.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.355782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.4705,
"optimistic_value": 1.46,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:06.182051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.4447275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 4.724,
"optimistic_value": 4.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:57:01.597106Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.39728990000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 5.0285,
"optimistic_value": 4.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 4.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:13.853496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.355782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1975000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:51.660998Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0cfac29eb680494633180ab5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "523123888072060210",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:51:31.160615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "528753387757177857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:08.831932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "507361289452853257",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:51:31.546726Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "518620288313610724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:08.831932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "501731789729892725",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:53:01.563536Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:35.739830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:35.739830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850490549679492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:50.856399Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "496102290328799519",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:48.780377Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "508487189339594522",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:48.780377Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.16 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.49 | $18.08 +111.7% | $10.72 +25.5% | 41.7% | +65.2% | $8.54 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Mulberry 16.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 16.7% $17.43 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.61 | $38.92 +97.0% | $24.44 +23.7% | 41.7% | +53.7% | $19.76 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Mulberry 16.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.93 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.20 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.47 | $6.93 +100.9% | $3.79 +9.9% | 41.7% | +62.2% | $3.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +132.2% | $4.04 +35.0% | 60.0% | +68.4% | $2.99 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $5.03 Mulberry 26.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $2.22 Royal Guard 10.0% $1.47 | $6.94 +132.2% | $4.04 +34.9% | 63.3% | +55.6% | $2.99 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +126.2% | $4.10 +33.7% | 55.0% | +79.3% | $3.07 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.20 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +127.7% | $4.05 +32.9% | 56.7% | +76.8% | $3.05 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $5.03 Mulberry 6.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.20 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.47 | $6.94 +115.0% | $4.16 +28.9% | 53.3% | +77.8% | $3.23 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.21 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.49 | $18.08 +130.9% | $9.78 +25.0% | 35.0% | +61.4% | $7.83 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $5.03 Mulberry 3.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $2.20 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.47 | $6.94 +105.4% | $4.18 +23.8% | 51.7% | +77.7% | $3.38 | — |