The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Royal Baroque
1x $0.37
Mint Fan
1x $0.52
Shredded
5x $0.26
Rose Hex
2x $0.34
Blush Pour
1x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
10.0% $6.93
Mulberry
26.7% $5.01
Glitched Paint
26.7% $2.91
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $2.15
Royal Guard
10.0% $1.31
Max Win
$6.93 (+78.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.51 (-9.8%)
Win %
36.7%
Volatility
+43.3%
Cost
$3.89
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.89
Ask Price EV $3.51 (-9.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.17 (-18.6%)
Ask Profit $-0.38 (-9.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.72 (-18.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+8.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.72
Risk
Win Probability 36.7%
Loss Probability 63.3%
Best Case $6.93 (+78.2%)
Worst Case $1.31 (-66.3%)
Volatility +43.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 63.3%
Avg Win +$1.64
Avg Loss -$1.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.31 (-66.3%)
Std Dev $1.69
Avg Norm Float 0.4499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 140h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 49S //TOTAL COST $3.89 //ASK PRICE EV $3.51 //BID PRICE EV $3.17 //ASK PROFIT $-0.38 (-9.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.72 (-18.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.7% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +43.3% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$6.93
+$3.04
+78.2%
$5.76
+$1.87
+48.1%
$1.17
16.9%
—
WIN
26.7%
$5.01
+$1.12
+28.7%
$4.66
+$0.77
+19.8%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$2.91
-$0.98
-25.2%
$2.76
-$1.13
-29.0%
$0.15
5.1%
—
NUKE
26.7%
$2.15
-$1.74
-44.7%
$1.90
-$1.99
-51.2%
$0.25
11.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.31
-$2.58
-66.3%
$1.07
-$2.82
-72.5%
$0.24
18.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.33743249999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3014397,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9084999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:56.507687Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.26994599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.152,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:09.295928Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.33743249999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.26994599999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.311,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:17:36.006091Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0a4014ec7222059354a48275",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "524249787961450167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:30.646863Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "500605837397096555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:53.894134Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:57.556183Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:57.556183Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435179581668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:57.556183Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850490550053316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:01.680101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:24.587929Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:24.587929Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:46:01.680101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:59.797257Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 | $18.08 +122.3% | $9.95 +22.4% | 36.7% | +62.3% | $8.13 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $38.92 Mulberry 26.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 26.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 10.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +92.5% | $23.38 +15.6% | 36.7% | +44.3% | $20.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +128.4% | $4.03 +32.7% | 60.0% | +67.3% | $3.04 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31 | $6.94 +126.9% | $4.04 +32.0% | 58.3% | +71.9% | $3.06 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.31 | $6.94 +128.4% | $4.00 +31.7% | 61.7% | +62.4% | $3.04 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +121.1% | $4.06 +29.2% | 56.7% | +74.6% | $3.14 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31 | $6.94 +118.3% | $4.08 +28.3% | 55.0% | +77.4% | $3.18 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94 | $38.92 +85.9% | $25.67 +22.6% | 46.7% | +56.3% | $20.94 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.95 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.48 | $18.08 +128.2% | $9.70 +22.5% | 35.0% | +61.3% | $7.92 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88 | $38.92 +83.1% | $26.02 +22.4% | 48.3% | +57.3% | $21.26 | — |