The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items

Battle-Scarred -3.0%Factory New -13.9%Field-Tested +22.4%Minimal Wear +15.6%Well-Worn -9.8%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested

Inputs

Mint Fan

2x $0.61

Rose Hex

4x $0.34

Blush Pour

1x $0.65

Shredded

2x $0.83

Red Tide

1x $1.04

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

10.0% $18.08

Mulberry

26.7% $15.94

Glitched Paint

26.7% $6.95

Royal Guard

10.0% $5.73

Bleeding Edge

26.7% $5.50

Max Win

$18.08 (+122.3%)

EV (ROI %)

$9.95 (+22.4%)

Win %

36.7%

Volatility

+62.3%

Cost

$8.13

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $8.13

Ask Price EV $9.95 (+22.4%)

Bid Price EV $8.94 (+9.9%)

Ask Profit $1.82 (+22.4%)

Bid Profit $0.81 (+9.9%)

Liquidity Gap $1.02 (+12.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.82

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.81

Risk

Win Probability 36.7%

Loss Probability 63.3%

Best Case $18.08 (+122.3%)

Worst Case $5.50 (-32.3%)

Volatility +62.3%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.7%

Avg Win +$8.39

Avg Loss -$1.98

Bottom 5% Outcome $5.50 (-32.3%)

Std Dev $5.06

Avg Norm Float 0.1999

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 25m

Oldest Output Price 139h 53m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Minimal Wear

$1.19 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Blush Pour

—

Field-Tested

$0.65 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Minimal Wear

$0.82 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Minimal Wear

$0.83 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Minimal Wear

$0.86 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | Rose Hex

—

Minimal Wear

$0.87 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Shredded

—

Minimal Wear

$0.92 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Red Tide

—

Minimal Wear

$1.04 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 22S //TOTAL COST $8.13 //ASK PRICE EV $9.95 //BID PRICE EV $8.94 //ASK PROFIT $1.82 (+22.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.81 (+9.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.7% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +62.3% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.1499475,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
      "realistic_value": 15.9415,
      "optimistic_value": 15.91,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
      "conservative_value": 14.54,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.13395310000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
      "realistic_value": 6.949,
      "optimistic_value": 6.83,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
      "conservative_value": 6.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:07.062148Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
      "output_float": 0.119958,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
      "realistic_value": 5.5045,
      "optimistic_value": 5.48,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
      "conservative_value": 5.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:46.515053Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.1499475,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 18.0765,
      "optimistic_value": 17.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 15.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.119958,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 5.7275,
      "optimistic_value": 5.64,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 5.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:10:14.842875Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_0a4014ec7222059354a48275",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "514116636507281046",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:53.894134Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "625579418032572382",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:18.454797Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "516368488725524570",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:24.587929Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.65,
      "skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
      "listing_id": "526501535293744649",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:59.797257Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.82,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "527627435179438172",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:33.871040Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "506235389469553368",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:18.455662Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.86,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "521997935570553426",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:33.871040Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
      "listing_id": "491598638255524202",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:45:33.871040Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
      "listing_id": "509613089303970831",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Shredded",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:18.455662Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.04,
      "skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
      "listing_id": "508487189339664218",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P250 | Red Tide",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:42:55.655714Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $38.92 Mulberry 26.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 26.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 10.0% $13.94	$38.92 +92.5%	$23.38 +15.6%	36.7%	+44.3%	$20.22	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $5.03 Mulberry 20.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 20.0% $1.26	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.03 +32.7%	60.0%	+67.3%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $5.03 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.10 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.31	$6.94 +126.9%	$4.04 +32.0%	58.3%	+71.9%	$3.06	—
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.10 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.31	$6.94 +128.4%	$4.00 +31.7%	61.7%	+62.4%	$3.04	—
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $5.03 Mulberry 13.3% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.22 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.06 +29.2%	56.7%	+74.6%	$3.14	—
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $5.03 Mulberry 10.0% $4.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.31	$6.94 +118.3%	$4.08 +28.3%	55.0%	+77.4%	$3.18	—
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Mulberry 6.7% $33.42 Glitched Paint 6.7% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $16.98 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.94	$38.92 +85.9%	$25.67 +22.6%	46.7%	+56.3%	$20.94	—
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.95 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.73 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.48	$18.08 +128.2%	$9.70 +22.5%	35.0%	+61.3%	$7.92	—
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 3.3% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.88	$38.92 +83.1%	$26.02 +22.4%	48.3%	+57.3%	$21.26	—