The Lake Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cyanospatter
2x $0.06
Mudder
1x $0.09
Tiger Tear
3x $0.06
Marsh
1x $0.07
Leafhopper
2x $0.08
Acid Dart
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $1.82
Anodized Navy
10.0% $1.03
Night Ops
10.0% $0.61
Teardown
10.0% $0.47
Poplar Thicket
14.0% $0.45
Max Win
$4.61 (+370.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.28 (+31.1%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+145.3%
Cost
$0.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.98
Ask Price EV $1.28 (+31.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.13 (+15.1%)
Ask Profit $0.30 (+31.1%)
Bid Profit $0.15 (+15.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+16.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.30
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+370.4%)
Worst Case $0.38 (-61.5%)
Volatility +145.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 62.0%
Avg Win +$1.66
Avg Loss -$0.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.38 (-61.5%)
Std Dev $1.42
Avg Norm Float 0.1992
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 115h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 58S //TOTAL COST $0.98 //ASK PRICE EV $1.28 //BID PRICE EV $1.13 //ASK PROFIT $0.30 (+31.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.15 (+15.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +145.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.61
+$3.63
+370.4%
$3.81
+$2.83
+288.8%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$1.82
+$0.84
+85.8%
$1.70
+$0.72
+73.5%
$0.12
6.6%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$1.03
+$0.05
+5.1%
$1.00
+$0.02
+2.0%
$0.03
2.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.61
-$0.37
-37.4%
$0.58
-$0.40
-40.8%
$0.03
5.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.47
-$0.51
-52.0%
$0.39
-$0.59
-60.2%
$0.08
17.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.45
-$0.53
-54.3%
$0.41
-$0.57
-58.2%
$0.04
8.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.41
-$0.57
-58.1%
$0.38
-$0.60
-61.2%
$0.03
7.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.38
-$0.60
-61.5%
$0.35
-$0.63
-64.3%
$0.03
7.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1494075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13546280000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4475,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:20:59.493916Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.119526,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.41050000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:54.653511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10956550000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.119526,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.3775,
"optimistic_value": 0.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:22.889752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.119526,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 0.47,
"optimistic_value": 0.47,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:25.422167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0159368,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.03,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:30.408909Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.119526,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:22:35.016965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08ca7c7d664e50050b91da66",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "514116688949877126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:00.225005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587737333717",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:00.225005Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "511864836540177417",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:36.318412Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "505109489448876224",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:48:55.221459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "497228190140829245",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:48:55.221459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:37.896699Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:32.225714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:51.633224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 6.7% $7.22 Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 Copperflage 16.0% $1.67 Teardown 6.7% $1.65 Gold Leaf 16.0% $1.57 | $7.22 +275.9% | $2.58 +34.4% | 38.7% | +84.6% | $1.92 | — |