The Lake Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Mudder
2x $0.39
Cyanospatter
1x $0.41
Leafhopper
1x $0.18
Polished Malachite
3x $0.29
Acid Dart
1x $0.36
Mustard Gas
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $10.66
Night Ops
10.0% $7.22
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Teardown
10.0% $1.65
Gold Leaf
14.0% $1.57
Copperflage
14.0% $1.56
Max Win
$10.66 (+125.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.65 (-22.9%)
Win %
24.0%
Volatility
+70.4%
Cost
$4.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.73
Ask Price EV $3.65 (-22.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.43 (-27.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.08 (-22.9%)
Bid Profit $-1.30 (-27.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+4.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.30
Risk
Win Probability 24.0%
Loss Probability 76.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+125.4%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-78.5%)
Volatility +70.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 62.0%
Avg Win +$4.50
Avg Loss -$2.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-78.5%)
Std Dev $3.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 141h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 49S //TOTAL COST $4.73 //ASK PRICE EV $3.65 //BID PRICE EV $3.43 //ASK PROFIT $-1.08 (-22.9%) //BID PROFIT $-1.30 (-27.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 24.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +70.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.66
+$5.93
+125.4%
$9.81
+$5.08
+107.4%
$0.85
8.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$7.22
+$2.49
+52.6%
$6.84
+$2.11
+44.6%
$0.38
5.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.67
-$1.06
-22.4%
$3.64
-$1.09
-23.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.65
-$3.08
-65.1%
$1.64
-$3.09
-65.3%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.57
-$3.16
-66.8%
$1.28
-$3.45
-72.9%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.56
-$3.17
-67.0%
$1.50
-$3.23
-68.3%
$0.06
3.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.53
-$3.20
-67.6%
$1.52
-$3.21
-67.9%
$0.01
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.02
-$3.71
-78.5%
$1.00
-$3.73
-78.9%
$0.02
1.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.047382400000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:21:54.516990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041808000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.038324000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041808000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:31.687833Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041808000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:37.943549Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0055744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.017,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:17:17.774876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041808000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_08ca7c7d664e50050b91da66",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "502857689861754424",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:45.223416Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "514116688949051214",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:07.159561Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "653726915730968187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:45.223416Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:14.866291Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "494976338033138262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:29.410707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "520872088106929236",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:29.410707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:29.410707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789045082911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:15.437170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.235613Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:13.242596Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Anodized Navy 10.0% $1.02 Night Ops 10.0% $0.61 Teardown 10.0% $0.47 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +380.2% | $1.28 +33.7% | 38.0% | +140.0% | $0.96 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Anodized Navy 6.7% $1.02 Night Ops 6.7% $0.61 Teardown 6.7% $0.47 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.45 | $4.61 +352.0% | $1.37 +34.0% | 32.0% | +136.9% | $1.02 | — |