The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $0.14
Lifted Spirits
2x $0.15
Fragment
4x $0.30
RMX
1x $0.37
Bock Blocks
1x $0.41
Fusion
1x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
14.0% $10.69
Firebreathing
14.0% $6.12
Galigator
14.0% $3.26
Amberline
14.0% $3.22
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $3.19
Night Terror
6.0% $2.66
Max Win
$10.69 (+231.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.14 (+28.2%)
Win %
42.0%
Volatility
+94.2%
Cost
$3.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.23
Ask Price EV $4.14 (+28.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.49 (+8.0%)
Ask Profit $0.91 (+28.2%)
Bid Profit $0.26 (+8.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+20.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.91
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 42.0%
Loss Probability 58.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+231.1%)
Worst Case $0.87 (-73.1%)
Volatility +94.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$3.46
Avg Loss -$0.94
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.87 (-73.1%)
Std Dev $3.04
Avg Norm Float 0.3750
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 16S //TOTAL COST $3.23 //ASK PRICE EV $4.14 //BID PRICE EV $3.49 //ASK PROFIT $0.91 (+28.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.26 (+8.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +94.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.69
+$7.46
+231.1%
$9.15
+$5.92
+183.3%
$1.54
14.4%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$6.12
+$2.89
+89.4%
$4.98
+$1.75
+54.2%
$1.14
18.6%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$3.26
+$0.03
+1.0%
$2.91
-$0.32
-9.9%
$0.35
10.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.22
-$0.01
-0.2%
$2.61
-$0.62
-19.2%
$0.61
19.0%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.19
-$0.04
-1.2%
$2.57
-$0.66
-20.4%
$0.62
19.4%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.66
-$0.57
-17.8%
$2.39
-$0.84
-26.0%
$0.26
10.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.87
-$1.36
-42.1%
$1.54
-$1.69
-52.3%
$0.33
17.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.92
-$2.31
-71.4%
$0.81
-$2.42
-74.9%
$0.11
12.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.87
-$2.36
-73.0%
$0.75
-$2.48
-76.8%
$0.12
14.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.87
-$2.36
-73.1%
$0.80
-$2.43
-75.2%
$0.07
8.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.37496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.37496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2635,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:45.477369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.37496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.37496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.222,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:27.275089Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.37496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.19,
"optimistic_value": 3.19,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:23.329965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.37496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.9235,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:37.414137Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.262472,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 2.655,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 2.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:08.010392Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.25122320000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.87,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:34.186108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2849696,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.87,
"optimistic_value": 1.87,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:48.305797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.18748,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.8734999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T01:51:18.905806Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_06d9570b37a4b876b1e6399e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "521997988015746222",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:17.463951Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "508487189340149498",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:02.574406Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "529879235107763064",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:02.574406Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "502857689862472948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.066140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289452778197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.066140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989896168933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.066140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "516368488725935870",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:27.925044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "496102290329339159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:33.871628Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "515242588554858085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:28.482189Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:37.712768Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.79 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +216.9% | $19.98 +23.5% | 42.0% | +81.0% | $16.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.79 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +254.3% | $17.97 +24.2% | 48.0% | +88.5% | $14.47 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +186.3% | $22.02 +22.9% | 48.0% | +74.6% | $17.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.79 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +162.5% | $24.01 +22.9% | 36.0% | +70.2% | $19.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.26 Amberline 10.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $3.19 Night Terror 10.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +290.3% | $3.37 +22.9% | 50.0% | +90.7% | $2.74 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 8.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 8.0% $6.12 Galigator 8.0% $3.26 Amberline 8.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $3.19 Night Terror 12.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +332.9% | $2.98 +20.8% | 52.0% | +95.5% | $2.47 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 6.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 6.0% $6.12 Galigator 6.0% $3.26 Amberline 6.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $3.19 Night Terror 14.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +381.7% | $2.60 +16.9% | 44.0% | +98.2% | $2.22 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Amberline 4.0% $6.48 Galigator 4.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.73 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +410.1% | $3.70 +11.4% | 52.0% | +93.1% | $3.32 | — |