The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Scrawl
1x $0.41
Necro Jr.
1x $0.52
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.72
Bock Blocks
5x $0.87
RMX
2x $1.62
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
14.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
14.0% $31.66
Amberline
14.0% $18.87
Galigator
14.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $13.92
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $10.13
Max Win
$51.27 (+216.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.01 (+23.5%)
Win %
42.0%
Volatility
+93.1%
Cost
$16.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.20
Ask Price EV $20.01 (+23.5%)
Bid Price EV $17.08 (+5.4%)
Ask Profit $3.81 (+23.5%)
Bid Profit $0.88 (+5.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.93 (+18.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.81
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.88
Risk
Win Probability 42.0%
Loss Probability 58.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+216.5%)
Worst Case $2.45 (-84.9%)
Volatility +93.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$17.73
Avg Loss -$6.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.45 (-84.9%)
Std Dev $15.08
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 143h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 40S //TOTAL COST $16.20 //ASK PRICE EV $20.01 //BID PRICE EV $17.08 //ASK PROFIT $3.81 (+23.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.88 (+5.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +93.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$51.27
+$35.07
+216.5%
$43.51
+$27.31
+168.6%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$31.66
+$15.46
+95.4%
$29.45
+$13.25
+81.8%
$2.21
7.0%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$18.87
+$2.67
+16.5%
$12.97
-$3.23
-19.9%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$14.51
-$1.69
-10.4%
$13.05
-$3.15
-19.4%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$13.92
-$2.28
-14.1%
$11.82
-$4.38
-27.0%
$2.10
15.1%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$10.13
-$6.07
-37.5%
$8.42
-$7.78
-48.0%
$1.71
16.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$8.17
-$8.03
-49.6%
$7.88
-$8.32
-51.4%
$0.29
3.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$5.94
-$10.26
-63.3%
$5.08
-$11.12
-68.6%
$0.86
14.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.99
-$13.22
-81.6%
$2.62
-$13.58
-83.8%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.45
-$13.75
-84.9%
$2.11
-$14.09
-87.0%
$0.34
13.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.917,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.939,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:21.774990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 8.171,
"optimistic_value": 8.01,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:04.842408Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.04687990000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0531772,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.034985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.45,
"optimistic_value": 2.45,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:11.374537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_06d9570b37a4b876b1e6399e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "507361289452933933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:40.760546Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "501730992860193137",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:14.232391Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:37.414569Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:10.494064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:10.494064Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242423034647657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "492724538182380753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 2.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613089304746343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "499479989895893281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "518620122758487316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 14.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 14.0% $10.78 Amberline 14.0% $6.48 Galigator 14.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $4.73 Night Terror 6.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +158.2% | $6.97 +6.2% | 28.0% | +63.6% | $6.56 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +186.3% | $22.02 +22.9% | 48.0% | +74.6% | $17.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.42 Galigator 10.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.81 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +261.1% | $5.66 +20.8% | 50.0% | +84.5% | $4.69 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +238.9% | $18.00 +19.0% | 36.0% | +84.6% | $15.13 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.48 Galigator 8.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.81 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +298.5% | $5.02 +18.0% | 40.0% | +89.1% | $4.25 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 6.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 6.0% $6.12 Galigator 6.0% $3.26 Amberline 6.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $3.19 Night Terror 14.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +371.1% | $2.64 +16.4% | 44.0% | +95.2% | $2.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 4.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 4.0% $6.12 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 Galigator 4.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $3.24 | $10.69 +316.1% | $2.89 +12.5% | 52.0% | +70.5% | $2.57 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +124.2% | $24.04 +5.1% | 36.0% | +59.9% | $22.87 | — |