The Safehouse Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Forest Leaves
2x $0.10
Rose Nacre
3x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.13
Robin's Egg
1x $0.14
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.17
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.36
Teardown
6.7% $2.81
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
16.0% $2.18
Yeti Camo
16.0% $1.90
Acid Fade
6.7% $1.39
Max Win
$3.36 (+71.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.16 (+10.3%)
Win %
54.7%
Volatility
+38.3%
Cost
$1.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.96
Ask Price EV $2.16 (+10.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.09 (+6.7%)
Ask Profit $0.20 (+10.3%)
Bid Profit $0.13 (+6.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+3.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 54.7%
Loss Probability 45.3%
Best Case $3.36 (+71.5%)
Worst Case $1.11 (-43.5%)
Volatility +38.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 29.3%
Avg Win +$0.78
Avg Loss -$0.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.11 (-43.5%)
Std Dev $0.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1161
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 28m
Oldest Output Price 29m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 23S //TOTAL COST $1.96 //ASK PRICE EV $2.16 //BID PRICE EV $2.09 //ASK PROFIT $0.20 (+10.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.13 (+6.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 54.7% //BEST CASE $3.36 //VOLATILITY +38.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.36
+$1.40
+71.5%
$3.34
+$1.38
+70.4%
$0.02
0.6%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$2.81
+$0.85
+43.4%
$2.78
+$0.82
+41.8%
$0.03
1.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.64
+$0.68
+34.7%
$2.62
+$0.66
+33.7%
$0.02
0.8%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.18
+$0.22
+11.0%
$2.00
+$0.04
+2.0%
$0.18
8.1%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.90
-$0.06
-3.0%
$1.81
-$0.15
-7.7%
$0.09
4.8%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$1.39
-$0.57
-28.9%
$1.31
-$0.65
-33.2%
$0.08
6.0%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$1.39
-$0.57
-29.2%
$1.33
-$0.63
-32.1%
$0.06
4.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.11
-$0.85
-43.5%
$1.04
-$0.92
-46.9%
$0.07
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.069642,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3605,
"optimistic_value": 3.35,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:07.723007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.081249,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.9004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.131294Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.07544550000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.107,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:20.089447Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.069642,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:10.616732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.069642,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1755,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.966216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.069642,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:29.443941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.046428000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3869999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:34.838210Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0034821,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.3935,
"optimistic_value": 1.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:56.034464Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05c029024419d7fdccc4ef4d",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "520872088105979016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:42.221957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "606438509290341941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:42.221957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "519746188258687940",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:42.766030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961224195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.519178Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:28.397475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:51:10.286529Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "525375688037289391",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.108655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "524249622292660575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:42.766030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "633460010809086850",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:42.766030Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.89 Silver Quartz 10.0% $1.39 | $3.37 +105.7% | $2.14 +30.3% | 66.0% | +36.6% | $1.64 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.90 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.39 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.04 | $1.90 +121.0% | $1.04 +20.9% | 73.3% | +38.0% | $0.86 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.36 Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.90 Acid Fade 16.7% $1.42 | $3.36 +93.1% | $2.06 +18.1% | 56.7% | +34.9% | $1.74 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Teardown 20.0% $2.81 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.27 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.89 Silver Quartz 20.0% $1.39 | $3.37 +95.0% | $2.02 +16.8% | 52.0% | +36.0% | $1.73 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.90 Acid Fade 23.3% $1.39 Silver Quartz 23.3% $1.39 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.11 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 6.0% $1.09 | $1.90 +79.3% | $1.14 +7.3% | 70.7% | +24.1% | $1.06 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $6.94 Royal Guard  45.0% $1.36 Nitro  10.0% $0.63 | $6.94 +112.3% | $3.80 +16.2% | 45.0% | +87.2% | $3.27 | — |