The Safehouse Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Forest Leaves
1x $0.27
VariCamo
1x $0.76
Electric Blue
1x $0.25
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
Rose Nacre
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
16.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.37
Teardown
6.7% $2.81
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
16.0% $2.18
Max Win
$4.46 (-21.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.82 (-50.1%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+16.1%
Cost
$5.65
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.65
Ask Price EV $2.82 (-50.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.76 (-51.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.83 (-50.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.89 (-51.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.83
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.89
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-21.1%)
Worst Case $1.38 (-75.6%)
Volatility +16.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 84.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.38 (-75.6%)
Std Dev $0.91
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 1h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 21S //TOTAL COST $5.65 //ASK PRICE EV $2.82 //BID PRICE EV $2.76 //ASK PROFIT $-2.83 (-50.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.89 (-51.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +16.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
16.0%
$4.46
-$1.19
-21.1%
$4.43
-$1.22
-21.6%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.37
-$2.28
-40.3%
$3.34
-$2.31
-40.9%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$2.81
-$2.84
-50.3%
$2.79
-$2.86
-50.6%
$0.02
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.65
-$3.00
-53.1%
$2.62
-$3.03
-53.6%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.64
-$3.01
-53.3%
$2.62
-$3.03
-53.6%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.18
-$3.47
-61.5%
$2.00
-$3.65
-64.6%
$0.18
8.1%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.41
-$4.24
-75.0%
$1.31
-$4.34
-76.8%
$0.10
7.2%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.38
-$4.27
-75.6%
$1.33
-$4.32
-76.5%
$0.05
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:07.723007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04548050000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.810387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1755,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.041982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:14.071133Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.027988000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.38,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:14.154170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0020991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.4115,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:56:08.525013Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05c029024419d7fdccc4ef4d",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "524249787961878027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:01:08.590664Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "500605837397524451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:34.729335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:53.317539Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:53.716488Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:59.096487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:59.096487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "490471993876686363",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:11.368795Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "520872088107001092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.609663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:59.096487Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.609663Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:2+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Teardown 6.7% $2.81 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.88 Acid Fade 6.7% $1.41 | $3.37 +99.6% | $2.16 +28.1% | 70.7% | +34.9% | $1.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.17 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.88 Acid Fade 10.0% $1.41 | $3.37 +105.7% | $2.13 +29.7% | 66.0% | +36.6% | $1.64 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 12.0% $3.37 Teardown 13.3% $2.81 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.88 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.41 | $3.37 +103.2% | $2.09 +25.9% | 61.3% | +36.7% | $1.66 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.37 Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.88 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.38 | $3.37 +105.7% | $2.04 +24.6% | 56.7% | +38.0% | $1.64 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.37 Teardown 20.0% $2.81 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.26 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.89 Silver Quartz 20.0% $1.38 | $3.37 +98.4% | $2.01 +18.4% | 52.0% | +36.9% | $1.70 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 6.0% $3.37 Teardown 23.3% $2.81 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.88 Acid Fade 23.3% $1.41 | $3.37 +85.4% | $1.98 +8.7% | 47.3% | +34.0% | $1.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $6.94 Royal Guard  45.0% $1.36 Nitro  10.0% $0.63 | $6.94 +113.0% | $3.80 +16.5% | 45.0% | +87.5% | $3.26 | — |