The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Cell
1x $0.42
Tiger Stencil
2x $0.53
Picnic
2x $0.18
Banana Leaf
4x $0.35
XoooM
1x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Yorkshire
7.5% $6.64
Fraise Crane
17.5% $6.16
Alpine Camo
7.5% $5.11
Small Game
7.5% $3.63
Zeno
7.5% $3.57
Sky Mandala
17.5% $3.48
Max Win
$6.64 (+10.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.91 (-34.9%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+26.5%
Cost
$6.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.00
Ask Price EV $3.91 (-34.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.81 (-36.5%)
Ask Profit $-2.09 (-34.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.19 (-36.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+1.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.09
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.19
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $6.64 (+10.6%)
Worst Case $2.28 (-62.0%)
Volatility +26.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 67.5%
Avg Win +$0.30
Avg Loss -$2.89
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.28 (-62.0%)
Std Dev $1.59
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 8h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 28S //TOTAL COST $6.00 //ASK PRICE EV $3.91 //BID PRICE EV $3.81 //ASK PROFIT $-2.09 (-34.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.19 (-36.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $6.64 //VOLATILITY +26.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$6.64
+$0.63
+10.6%
$6.41
+$0.41
+6.8%
$0.22
3.4%
—
SMALL WIN
17.5%
$6.16
+$0.16
+2.6%
$6.12
+$0.12
+2.0%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$5.11
-$0.89
-14.8%
$5.03
-$0.97
-16.2%
$0.08
1.6%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.63
-$2.37
-39.4%
$3.29
-$2.71
-45.2%
$0.34
9.5%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$3.57
-$2.43
-40.5%
$3.31
-$2.69
-44.8%
$0.26
7.3%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$3.48
-$2.52
-41.9%
$3.42
-$2.58
-43.0%
$0.06
1.8%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.28
-$3.72
-61.9%
$2.25
-$3.75
-62.5%
$0.03
1.5%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.28
-$3.72
-62.0%
$2.25
-$3.75
-62.5%
$0.03
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.045474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:18.692949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.046173599999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.636998Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"realistic_value": 6.635,
"optimistic_value": 6.6,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"conservative_value": 6.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:09.145127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Small Game",
"conservative_value": 3.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:47.480076Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"realistic_value": 3.57,
"optimistic_value": 3.57,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:01.060661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0475728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"realistic_value": 5.1135,
"optimistic_value": 5.11,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"conservative_value": 5.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:25.377438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_035e941dbda63790df9d185c",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "499479989895985801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:17.519221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "494976338033104926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:23:37.200085Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "491598638254266758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:23:37.200085Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "525375740885784211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:47.527557Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "511864941882113313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "509613089305422567",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501640650770053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "523123940969352778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:42.671042Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "635711906863070477",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.980472Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.16 Alpine Camo 7.5% $5.11 Small Game 7.5% $3.63 Zeno 7.5% $3.57 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.48 Earth Mandala 17.5% $2.28 | $6.16 +129.8% | $3.53 +31.5% | 57.5% | +48.3% | $2.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 10.0% $6.16 Alpine Camo 15.0% $5.11 Small Game 15.0% $3.63 Zeno 15.0% $3.57 Sky Mandala 10.0% $3.48 Earth Mandala 10.0% $2.28 | $6.16 +111.6% | $3.50 +20.2% | 65.0% | +38.4% | $2.91 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  45.0% $9.85 Arctic Tri-Tone  3.3% $6.57 Heat Treated  3.3% $6.17 Crimson Foil  3.3% $6.00 Sleeping Potion  45.0% $2.05 | $9.85 +109.6% | $5.98 +27.2% | 55.0% | +78.8% | $4.70 | — |