The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Picnic
3x $0.15
Coral Paisley
2x $0.23
Steel Sentinel
2x $0.12
Copper Fiber
3x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
12.5% $3.06
Fraise Crane
12.5% $2.93
Late Night Transit
12.5% $2.82
2A2F
12.5% $2.65
Run Run Run
12.5% $2.40
Sky Mandala
12.5% $1.62
Max Win
$3.06 (+56.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.23 (+14.3%)
Win %
62.5%
Volatility
+37.8%
Cost
$1.95
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.95
Ask Price EV $2.23 (+14.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.09 (+7.0%)
Ask Profit $0.28 (+14.3%)
Bid Profit $0.14 (+7.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Risk
Win Probability 62.5%
Loss Probability 37.5%
Best Case $3.06 (+56.9%)
Worst Case $1.13 (-42.2%)
Volatility +37.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 25.0%
Avg Win +$0.82
Avg Loss -$0.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.13 (-42.2%)
Std Dev $0.74
Avg Norm Float 0.1494
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 12h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 25S //TOTAL COST $1.95 //ASK PRICE EV $2.23 //BID PRICE EV $2.09 //ASK PROFIT $0.28 (+14.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.14 (+7.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.5% //BEST CASE $3.06 //VOLATILITY +37.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$3.06
+$1.11
+56.9%
$3.05
+$1.10
+56.4%
$0.01
0.3%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.93
+$0.98
+50.5%
$2.39
+$0.44
+22.6%
$0.54
18.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.82
+$0.87
+44.6%
$2.81
+$0.86
+44.1%
$0.01
0.4%
—
WIN
12.5%
$2.65
+$0.70
+36.1%
$2.57
+$0.62
+31.8%
$0.08
3.2%
—
WIN
12.5%
$2.40
+$0.45
+23.2%
$2.22
+$0.27
+13.8%
$0.18
7.6%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.62
-$0.33
-16.7%
$1.58
-$0.37
-19.0%
$0.04
2.7%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.21
-$0.74
-37.7%
$1.03
-$0.92
-47.2%
$0.18
15.2%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.13
-$0.82
-42.2%
$1.04
-$0.91
-46.7%
$0.09
7.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.12849259999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.654,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:45.958429Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0971165,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.9339999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 2.92,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.10458699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.624,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:29.745029Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.14941,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 3.06,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:15.308186Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.14941,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 2.82,
"optimistic_value": 2.82,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:17.675574Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.10458699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.2145,
"optimistic_value": 1.19,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:40.515968Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11154577075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.4015,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:14.915840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.09861059999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1275,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:37.521726Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f43c6f8bce155ba44ab3b0d8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "506235442368742128",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:33:35.654537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "494976443342472234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:33:35.654537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "640216116808255619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:33:35.654537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:39.540812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "499479989895930289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:39.540812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532511991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:42.647233Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532516563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:42.647233Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "501731842662386885",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:16.141639Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "491598743580890558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:16.141639Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "498354142900503499",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:16.141639Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Fraise Crane 12.5% $6.16 Sky Mandala 12.5% $3.48 | $28.83 +211.6% | $10.98 +18.7% | 50.0% | +83.2% | $9.25 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Run Run Run 12.5% $2.40 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.62 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.21 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.13 Green Line 12.5% $0.93 | $2.93 +134.7% | $1.47 +17.7% | 37.5% | +53.0% | $1.25 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.93 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.40 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.61 Warm Blooded 17.5% $1.21 Earth Mandala 17.5% $1.13 Green Line 7.5% $0.94 | $2.93 +146.6% | $1.57 +32.1% | 60.0% | +57.2% | $1.19 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Fraise Crane 7.5% $6.16 Sky Mandala 7.5% $3.47 | $28.83 +160.9% | $13.95 +26.2% | 70.0% | +68.4% | $11.05 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Run Run Run 10.0% $2.40 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.61 Warm Blooded 15.0% $1.21 Earth Mandala 15.0% $1.13 Green Line 10.0% $0.94 | $2.93 +142.5% | $1.52 +25.8% | 55.0% | +55.4% | $1.21 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Fraise Crane 10.0% $6.16 Sky Mandala 10.0% $3.47 | $28.83 +187.7% | $12.46 +24.4% | 60.0% | +76.8% | $10.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  16.7% $64.86 Derailment  16.7% $41.07 Exothermic  25.0% $27.14 Sleeping Potion  25.0% $22.67 Charged Up  16.7% $22.18 | $64.86 +133.8% | $33.80 +21.9% | 33.3% | +55.2% | $27.74 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 Party Animal  20.0% $158.85 | $597.10 +67.3% | $388.39 +8.8% | 40.0% | +49.7% | $356.98 | — |