The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Aeolian Light
3x $0.38
Grip Tape
4x $0.39
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Copperflage
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
15.0% $5.30
Trace Lock
35.0% $4.59
Glockingbird
15.0% $3.55
Max Win
$12.25 (+121.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.22 (+30.7%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+67.4%
Cost
$5.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.52
Ask Price EV $7.22 (+30.7%)
Bid Price EV $6.71 (+21.5%)
Ask Profit $1.70 (+30.7%)
Bid Profit $1.18 (+21.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.51 (+9.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.18
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+121.8%)
Worst Case $3.55 (-35.8%)
Volatility +67.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 15.0%
Avg Win +$6.73
Avg Loss -$1.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.55 (-35.8%)
Std Dev $3.72
Avg Norm Float 0.1984
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 139h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 28S //TOTAL COST $5.52 //ASK PRICE EV $7.22 //BID PRICE EV $6.71 //ASK PROFIT $1.70 (+30.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.18 (+21.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +67.4% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$12.25
+$6.73
+121.8%
$11.36
+$5.84
+105.8%
$0.89
7.2%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$5.30
-$0.22
-4.1%
$5.20
-$0.32
-5.8%
$0.10
1.8%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$4.59
-$0.93
-16.9%
$4.15
-$1.37
-24.8%
$0.44
9.5%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$3.55
-$1.97
-35.8%
$3.31
-$2.21
-40.0%
$0.24
6.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1487775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.13885899999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.587,
"optimistic_value": 4.51,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:07.603854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1329079,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.5455,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:37:59.617087Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1487775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.2955,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:54.004771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f41fc2de67260a0d1612679c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:27.519353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "491598690698922002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:09.170293Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "490472790737062311",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:42:55.983347Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "512990789044548059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:42:55.983347Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313651836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:47.900006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:47.900006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:47.900006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:51:13.102187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:51:13.102187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "514116688949135922",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:20.384071Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.24 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 15.0% $1.51 | $6.12 +128.2% | $3.46 +29.0% | 35.0% | +73.4% | $2.68 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.24 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $1.71 Glockingbird 15.0% $1.51 | $5.85 +113.5% | $3.32 +21.0% | 35.0% | +68.5% | $2.74 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $17.65 Trace Lock 35.0% $15.24 Glockingbird 15.0% $12.00 | $26.93 +68.0% | $19.21 +19.8% | 50.0% | +36.7% | $16.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +155.6% | $6.42 +34.0% | 50.0% | +71.4% | $4.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 20.0% $1.51 | $6.12 +148.6% | $3.22 +30.7% | 30.0% | +77.9% | $2.46 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.51 | $12.25 +107.9% | $7.61 +29.3% | 40.0% | +64.6% | $5.89 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.51 | $12.25 +94.4% | $8.01 +27.2% | 45.0% | +60.9% | $6.30 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.51 | $12.25 +157.2% | $6.01 +26.2% | 50.0% | +67.1% | $4.76 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.57 | $12.25 +174.6% | $5.61 +25.8% | 65.0% | +64.5% | $4.46 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +172.7% | $5.22 +16.2% | 60.0% | +55.0% | $4.49 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.65 Trace Lock 5.0% $15.24 Glockingbird 45.0% $12.00 | $26.93 +87.8% | $15.45 +7.7% | 55.0% | +26.2% | $14.34 | — |