The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Gnarled
1x $0.37
Ol' Rusty
1x $0.82
Freight
1x $1.80
Bock Blocks
4x $0.87
RMX
2x $1.72
Fusion
1x $2.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
14.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
14.0% $31.66
Amberline
14.0% $18.87
Galigator
14.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
14.0% $13.92
Brother
6.0% $11.85
Max Win
$51.27 (+221.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.64 (+29.3%)
Win %
42.0%
Volatility
+90.7%
Cost
$15.96
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.96
Ask Price EV $20.64 (+29.3%)
Bid Price EV $17.38 (+8.9%)
Ask Profit $4.68 (+29.3%)
Bid Profit $1.42 (+8.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.26 (+20.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.42
Risk
Win Probability 42.0%
Loss Probability 58.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+221.3%)
Worst Case $5.03 (-68.5%)
Volatility +90.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$17.97
Avg Loss -$4.94
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.03 (-68.5%)
Std Dev $14.48
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 57h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.54 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 41S //TOTAL COST $15.96 //ASK PRICE EV $20.64 //BID PRICE EV $17.38 //ASK PROFIT $4.68 (+29.3%) //BID PROFIT $1.42 (+8.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +90.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$51.27
+$35.31
+221.3%
$43.51
+$27.55
+172.6%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$31.66
+$15.70
+98.4%
$29.45
+$13.49
+84.5%
$2.21
7.0%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$18.87
+$2.91
+18.2%
$12.97
-$2.99
-18.7%
$5.90
31.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$14.51
-$1.45
-9.1%
$13.05
-$2.91
-18.2%
$1.46
10.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$13.92
-$2.04
-12.8%
$11.82
-$4.14
-25.9%
$2.10
15.1%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$11.85
-$4.11
-25.7%
$6.76
-$9.20
-57.6%
$5.09
43.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.88
-$7.08
-44.4%
$7.96
-$8.00
-50.1%
$0.92
10.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$7.80
-$8.16
-51.1%
$6.87
-$9.09
-57.0%
$0.93
12.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$6.58
-$9.38
-58.8%
$5.60
-$10.36
-64.9%
$0.98
14.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.03
-$10.93
-68.5%
$3.99
-$11.97
-75.0%
$1.04
20.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.917,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:34.463324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 6.5805,
"optimistic_value": 6.57,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 5.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:35.789289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 7.8045,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 6.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:24:36.328906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.8775,
"optimistic_value": 8.79,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:24.419337Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.031,
"optimistic_value": 4.87,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 3.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:25.618511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.8515,
"optimistic_value": 11.33,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 6.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T19:03:13.729438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e009895894a60704431e0f3c",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "524249787960597759",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:39.441701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "505109489447550308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:24.197647Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "523123091056815646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:39.643365Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "520872088106561496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:42.803981Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "492724590626343393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:42.803981Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "517493591317579006",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "492724538182380753",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:44.184495Z"
},
{
"price": 2.54,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "497228137695843557",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:02.205252Z"
},
{
"price": 2.55,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613089304746343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "499479989895893281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:14:56.959168Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.26 Amberline 14.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $3.19 Monster Call 6.0% $1.11 | $10.69 +187.4% | $4.02 +8.0% | 28.0% | +74.3% | $3.72 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 14.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 14.0% $10.78 Amberline 14.0% $6.42 Galigator 14.0% $5.68 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $4.73 Monster Call 6.0% $2.47 | $16.94 +158.2% | $6.91 +5.3% | 28.0% | +65.1% | $6.56 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.92 Brother 10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +293.2% | $17.04 +30.7% | 50.0% | +91.8% | $13.04 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.92 Brother 8.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +254.6% | $18.84 +30.3% | 48.0% | +86.1% | $14.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 6.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 6.0% $31.66 Amberline 6.0% $18.87 Galigator 6.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $13.92 Brother 14.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +396.4% | $13.43 +30.0% | 44.0% | +100.6% | $10.33 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 8.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 8.0% $31.66 Amberline 8.0% $18.87 Galigator 8.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $13.92 Brother 12.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +336.4% | $15.24 +29.7% | 52.0% | +96.3% | $11.75 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Brother 4.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +187.1% | $22.44 +25.7% | 48.0% | +74.0% | $17.86 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 4.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 4.0% $31.66 Amberline 4.0% $18.87 Galigator 4.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $13.92 Brother 16.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +437.5% | $11.63 +21.9% | 36.0% | +94.7% | $9.54 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.92 Brother 2.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +124.3% | $24.24 +6.1% | 36.0% | +59.6% | $22.86 | — |