The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Vendetta
1x $0.28
Snow Splash
2x $0.35
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.01
Dark Chamber
1x $1.12
Sour Grapes
2x $0.18
Electric Blue
1x $0.23
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
10.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
10.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
10.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
10.0% $2.64
Creep
12.5% $2.37
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.32
Max Win
$4.46 (-3.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.64 (-42.7%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+15.6%
Cost
$4.60
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.60
Ask Price EV $2.64 (-42.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.57 (-44.2%)
Ask Profit $-1.96 (-42.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.03 (-44.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+1.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.03
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-3.0%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-58.7%)
Volatility +15.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$1.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-58.7%)
Std Dev $0.72
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 3h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.01 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 57S //TOTAL COST $4.60 //ASK PRICE EV $2.64 //BID PRICE EV $2.57 //ASK PROFIT $-1.96 (-42.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.03 (-44.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +15.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
10.0%
$4.46
-$0.14
-3.0%
$4.43
-$0.17
-3.7%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.37
-$1.23
-26.7%
$3.30
-$1.30
-28.3%
$0.07
2.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.65
-$1.95
-42.4%
$2.62
-$1.98
-43.0%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.64
-$1.96
-42.5%
$2.62
-$1.98
-43.0%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.37
-$2.23
-48.5%
$2.34
-$2.26
-49.1%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.32
-$2.28
-49.5%
$2.26
-$2.34
-50.9%
$0.06
2.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.25
-$2.35
-51.1%
$1.99
-$2.61
-56.7%
$0.26
11.6%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.20
-$2.40
-52.2%
$2.10
-$2.50
-54.3%
$0.10
4.6%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.90
-$2.70
-58.7%
$1.86
-$2.74
-59.6%
$0.04
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.055936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3705,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:13.356421Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.040553599999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.324,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:17.118459Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.2005,
"optimistic_value": 2.19,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:08.801620Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.9004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:07.698517Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:03:25.092091Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:39.416285Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:47.525284Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.25,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:38.760376Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dd8c28364a683d94b9886649",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "499479989897332129",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:25.976984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "508487189340817154",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:24.130585Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "506235389470224624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:24.130585Z"
},
{
"price": 1.01,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "519746188259274308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:05.975718Z"
},
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "501731789730665321",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:51.723385Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "511864888985861757",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:50.169297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "510738989041206934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:08:17.752319Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:50.169297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:45.374575Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "506235389470433028",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:45.374575Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 5.0% $2.32 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.25 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 | $3.37 +113.5% | $2.05 +29.8% | 69.0% | +44.0% | $1.58 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.36 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $2.32 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.25 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.91 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.14 | $3.36 +119.6% | $1.95 +27.2% | 63.5% | +44.4% | $1.53 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.14 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.12 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.07 Mint Fan 8.0% $1.04 Reef Grief 8.0% $1.01 | $1.90 +118.0% | $1.04 +19.3% | 70.0% | +28.4% | $0.87 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.90 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.14 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $1.12 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.07 Mint Fan 6.0% $1.04 Reef Grief 6.0% $1.01 | $1.90 +123.2% | $1.01 +18.3% | 65.0% | +26.6% | $0.85 | — |