The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Cyberforce
1x $0.34
Liquidation
1x $0.48
Fragments
1x $1.76
Rebel
1x $1.88
Mockingbird
3x $0.38
Sure Grip
2x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Emphorosaur-S
8.0% $11.80
Rising Sun
12.0% $11.79
Control
12.0% $10.05
Wave Breaker
12.0% $9.41
Serpent Strike
12.0% $8.70
Banana Cannon
8.0% $8.12
Max Win
$11.80 (+36.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.15 (-5.5%)
Win %
56.0%
Volatility
+33.5%
Cost
$8.62
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.62
Ask Price EV $8.15 (-5.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.29 (-15.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.47 (-5.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.33 (-15.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.85 (+9.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.33
Risk
Win Probability 56.0%
Loss Probability 44.0%
Best Case $11.80 (+36.9%)
Worst Case $2.65 (-69.2%)
Volatility +33.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 28.0%
Avg Win +$1.63
Avg Loss -$3.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.65 (-69.2%)
Std Dev $2.88
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 155h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 51S //TOTAL COST $8.62 //ASK PRICE EV $8.15 //BID PRICE EV $7.29 //ASK PROFIT $-0.47 (-5.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.33 (-15.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.0% //BEST CASE $11.80 //VOLATILITY +33.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
8.0%
$11.80
+$3.18
+36.9%
$10.16
+$1.54
+17.9%
$1.64
13.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.79
+$3.17
+36.8%
$11.00
+$2.38
+27.6%
$0.79
6.7%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$10.05
+$1.43
+16.6%
$8.52
-$0.10
-1.2%
$1.53
15.2%
—
SMALL WIN
12.0%
$9.41
+$0.79
+9.1%
$8.98
+$0.36
+4.2%
$0.43
4.5%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$8.70
+$0.08
+1.0%
$7.63
-$0.99
-11.5%
$1.07
12.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.12
-$0.51
-5.9%
$6.70
-$1.92
-22.3%
$1.42
17.4%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$7.27
-$1.35
-15.6%
$6.18
-$2.44
-28.3%
$1.09
15.0%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$5.82
-$2.80
-32.5%
$5.63
-$2.99
-34.7%
$0.19
3.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.32
-$5.30
-61.5%
$3.08
-$5.54
-64.3%
$0.24
7.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.65
-$5.97
-69.2%
$2.41
-$6.21
-72.0%
$0.24
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0398088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0558018108,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 11.7945,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:12.246334Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06638634216,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 9.408,
"optimistic_value": 9.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:04.302832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.048887999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.818,
"optimistic_value": 5.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:24.722064Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.052379999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 7.274,
"optimistic_value": 7.19,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:46.167001Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055872000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2505072,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.3175,
"optimistic_value": 3.3,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:18.212205Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.115,
"optimistic_value": 8.01,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:59.333012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d18813751ee197179e6d74a8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:40.972408Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "527627540538513956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:28.933898Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515241791644842529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.108973Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496102237882665215",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:05.043591Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "517494336190340410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:04.864149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "526501587738334445",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:04.864149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "510738192160619110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:04.864149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "622201718411883996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:31.936308Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:31.936308Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:47.146040Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:4+collection-set-community-35:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Control 12.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +110.0% | $2.42 +15.3% | 60.0% | +41.5% | $2.10 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Rising Sun 12.0% $3.19 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Control 12.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 | $4.41 +66.4% | $2.87 +8.1% | 60.0% | +24.8% | $2.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 Control 6.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 14.0% $2.65 Tosai 6.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +117.2% | $2.42 +19.4% | 60.0% | +41.6% | $2.03 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Control 8.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Tosai 8.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +116.2% | $2.42 +18.5% | 60.0% | +42.0% | $2.04 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Control 10.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Tosai 10.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +113.0% | $2.42 +16.9% | 60.0% | +41.8% | $2.07 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $3.08 Control 14.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 6.0% $2.65 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +109.0% | $2.42 +14.9% | 60.0% | +41.6% | $2.11 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Shinobu  23.3% $35.33 Searing Rage  23.3% $26.81 Duality  10.0% $18.23 K.O. Factory  23.3% $14.15 Wild Child  10.0% $9.68 Wicked Sick  10.0% $9.62 | $35.33 +94.7% | $21.55 +18.8% | 56.7% | +53.2% | $18.14 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Printstream  35.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  35.0% $74.69 Temukau  15.0% $52.74 Head Shot  15.0% $46.53 | $127.68 +79.6% | $85.72 +20.6% | 70.0% | +45.6% | $71.10 | — |