The Revolution Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Fragments
1x $1.76
Rebel
1x $1.88
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dark Sigil
3x $0.36
Slag
2x $0.38
Dezastre
1x $0.61
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
16.0% $13.06
Emphorosaur-S
4.0% $11.80
Just Smile
16.0% $9.31
Block-18
16.0% $8.90
Banana Cannon
4.0% $8.11
Hybrid
16.0% $7.89
Max Win
$13.06 (+50.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.24 (-4.9%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+35.5%
Cost
$8.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.67
Ask Price EV $8.24 (-4.9%)
Bid Price EV $7.35 (-15.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.43 (-4.9%)
Bid Profit $-1.32 (-15.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.89 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.32
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+50.6%)
Worst Case $2.65 (-69.4%)
Volatility +35.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$1.86
Avg Loss -$2.90
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.32 (-61.7%)
Std Dev $3.08
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 153h 47m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 18S //TOTAL COST $8.67 //ASK PRICE EV $8.24 //BID PRICE EV $7.35 //ASK PROFIT $-0.43 (-4.9%) //BID PROFIT $-1.32 (-15.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +35.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.06
+$4.39
+50.6%
$12.03
+$3.36
+38.8%
$1.03
7.9%
—
WIN
4.0%
$11.80
+$3.13
+36.2%
$10.16
+$1.49
+17.2%
$1.64
13.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.31
+$0.64
+7.4%
$7.84
-$0.83
-9.6%
$1.47
15.8%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$8.90
+$0.23
+2.6%
$7.77
-$0.90
-10.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.11
-$0.56
-6.5%
$6.70
-$1.97
-22.7%
$1.41
17.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$7.89
-$0.78
-9.0%
$7.43
-$1.24
-14.3%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$7.09
-$1.58
-18.2%
$6.18
-$2.49
-28.7%
$0.91
12.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.13
-$4.54
-52.4%
$3.76
-$4.91
-56.6%
$0.37
8.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.32
-$5.35
-61.7%
$3.08
-$5.59
-64.5%
$0.24
7.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.65
-$6.02
-69.4%
$2.41
-$6.26
-72.2%
$0.24
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:09.190119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04702453125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:05.365814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0433140114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:48.352551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 7.0925,
"optimistic_value": 7.04,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:37.398079Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.055992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.2505942,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.324,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:01.258690Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.105,
"optimistic_value": 8,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:13.316906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d09fbbbaa3b8b42cc938a4ec",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515241791644842529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:14.074172Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496102237882665215",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:59.571085Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:24:50.901899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:21.488956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "662733504184360474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:36:47.550108Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:21.488956Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:10.295566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:12.161981Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:22.203933Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:2+collection-set-community-33:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $4.12 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 4.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +64.3% | $3.16 +16.7% | 56.0% | +25.7% | $2.71 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Sakkaku 4.0% $2.65 Etch Lord 16.0% $2.34 Analog Input 16.0% $1.94 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.82 Just Smile 16.0% $1.56 | $4.19 +98.6% | $2.16 +2.4% | 36.0% | +40.9% | $2.11 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 6.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +78.1% | $3.09 +23.5% | 74.0% | +28.7% | $2.50 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.34 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 | $4.19 +117.1% | $2.37 +22.7% | 52.0% | +44.0% | $1.93 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Just Smile 10.0% $3.34 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 | $4.45 +82.5% | $2.94 +20.4% | 70.0% | +30.4% | $2.44 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.46 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Just Smile 12.0% $3.34 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 | $4.46 +72.9% | $3.01 +16.8% | 72.0% | +28.4% | $2.58 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $4.12 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $3.08 Sakkaku 2.0% $2.65 | $4.46 +57.6% | $3.23 +14.3% | 58.0% | +24.0% | $2.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $14.33 Duality  3.3% $9.41 Wild Child  3.3% $5.49 Wicked Sick  3.3% $5.37 | $37.06 +100.1% | $20.56 +11.0% | 30.0% | +59.7% | $18.52 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  15.0% $228.37 Temukau  35.0% $126.64 Chrome Cannon  15.0% $64.35 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $228.37 +141.2% | $104.52 +10.4% | 50.0% | +65.9% | $94.68 | — |