The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.17
Foresight
1x $0.30
Fragment
1x $0.43
Fusion
2x $0.59
Bock Blocks
3x $0.63
RMX
2x $1.22
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
16.0% $10.78
Amberline
16.0% $5.56
Galigator
16.0% $5.30
Urban Sovereign
16.0% $4.90
Night Terror
4.0% $4.12
Max Win
$16.94 (+137.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.43 (+4.1%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+68.6%
Cost
$7.14
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $7.14
Ask Price EV $7.43 (+4.1%)
Bid Price EV $6.41 (-10.2%)
Ask Profit $0.29 (+4.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.73 (-10.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.02 (+14.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.73
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+137.2%)
Worst Case $1.14 (-84.0%)
Volatility +68.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$6.72
Avg Loss -$2.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.31 (-81.6%)
Std Dev $4.90
Avg Norm Float 0.1479
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 153h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.22 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 26S //TOTAL COST $7.14 //ASK PRICE EV $7.43 //BID PRICE EV $6.41 //ASK PROFIT $0.29 (+4.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.73 (-10.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +68.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$16.94
+$9.80
+137.2%
$14.31
+$7.17
+100.4%
$2.63
15.5%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.78
+$3.64
+50.9%
$9.15
+$2.01
+28.2%
$1.63
15.1%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$5.56
-$1.58
-22.1%
$4.92
-$2.22
-31.1%
$0.64
11.5%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$5.30
-$1.84
-25.8%
$4.91
-$2.23
-31.2%
$0.39
7.3%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.90
-$2.24
-31.4%
$4.26
-$2.88
-40.3%
$0.64
13.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.12
-$3.02
-42.2%
$3.46
-$3.68
-51.5%
$0.66
16.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.94
-$3.20
-44.8%
$3.26
-$3.88
-54.3%
$0.68
17.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.43
-$5.71
-79.9%
$1.22
-$5.92
-82.9%
$0.21
14.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.31
-$5.83
-81.6%
$1.19
-$5.95
-83.3%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.14
-$6.00
-84.0%
$1.00
-$6.14
-86.0%
$0.14
12.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.2965,
"optimistic_value": 5.09,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:47.589758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 5.562,
"optimistic_value": 5.24,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:56.544986Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.8955,
"optimistic_value": 4.85,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:34:46.609051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14793,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.434,
"optimistic_value": 1.42,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:16:15.378035Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.103551,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4.1240000000000006,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:15.418096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.09911310000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.314,
"optimistic_value": 1.3,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:10.057171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.11242680000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 3.94,
"optimistic_value": 3.94,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 3.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.994094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.073965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.1445,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:55.913655Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_c2d7f14888f69844caca7c06",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "528753440605725993",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:20.900301Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "509612292238590183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:23.179215Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "521998040963095890",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:50.132714Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "511864723318980237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:12:33.459438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:46.771579Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "510739041954246190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:20.082689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857742727234656",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:45.140407Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:45.140407Z"
},
{
"price": 1.22,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "512990841908728043",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:35.328460Z"
},
{
"price": 1.23,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "493850543432812360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:35.328460Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +207.2% | $22.01 +31.9% | 48.0% | +80.1% | $16.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +180.8% | $24.02 +31.6% | 54.0% | +75.0% | $18.26 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +228.3% | $20.00 +28.0% | 42.0% | +83.8% | $15.62 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.11 Galigator 10.0% $5.63 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.88 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +281.4% | $5.63 +26.8% | 50.0% | +89.4% | $4.44 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +259.8% | $17.99 +26.2% | 48.0% | +89.8% | $14.25 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.11 Galigator 8.0% $5.63 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.88 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +326.6% | $4.98 +25.5% | 52.0% | +95.4% | $3.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 6.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 6.0% $10.78 Amberline 6.0% $6.11 Galigator 6.0% $5.63 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $4.88 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +377.1% | $4.33 +22.1% | 58.0% | +98.9% | $3.55 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Galigator 4.0% $5.59 Amberline 4.0% $5.56 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.90 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +427.6% | $3.67 +14.3% | 52.0% | +95.8% | $3.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.59 Abyssal Apparition  3.3% $31.16 Rapid Eye Movement  3.3% $30.16 Melondrama  3.3% $26.06 | $290.04 +197.9% | $125.64 +29.0% | 30.0% | +110.9% | $97.36 | — |