The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Atlas
3x $0.76
Spectre
1x $1.51
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Hideout
1x $1.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Ghost Crusader
8.0% $39.11
Firefight
8.0% $23.12
Black Tie
8.0% $20.99
Red Astor
8.0% $13.77
Etch Lord
12.0% $13.06
Re-Entry
8.0% $10.16
Max Win
$39.11 (+190.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.78 (+2.4%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+68.1%
Cost
$13.46
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $13.46
Ask Price EV $13.78 (+2.4%)
Bid Price EV $11.58 (-14.0%)
Ask Profit $0.32 (+2.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.88 (-14.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.20 (+16.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.88
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $39.11 (+190.6%)
Worst Case $4.08 (-69.7%)
Volatility +68.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$10.79
Avg Loss -$4.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.08 (-69.7%)
Std Dev $9.17
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 146h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Spectre
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Atlas
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 04S //TOTAL COST $13.46 //ASK PRICE EV $13.78 //BID PRICE EV $11.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.32 (+2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.88 (-14.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $39.11 //VOLATILITY +68.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$39.11
+$25.65
+190.6%
$29.99
+$16.53
+122.8%
$9.12
23.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$23.12
+$9.66
+71.8%
$17.75
+$4.29
+31.9%
$5.37
23.2%
—
BIG WIN
8.0%
$20.99
+$7.52
+55.9%
$18.87
+$5.41
+40.2%
$2.11
10.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$13.77
+$0.31
+2.3%
$11.24
-$2.22
-16.5%
$2.53
18.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$13.06
-$0.40
-3.0%
$12.03
-$1.43
-10.6%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$10.16
-$3.30
-24.5%
$8.63
-$4.83
-35.9%
$1.53
15.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.49
-$3.97
-29.5%
$7.86
-$5.60
-41.6%
$1.63
17.2%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$8.90
-$4.56
-33.9%
$7.77
-$5.69
-42.3%
$1.13
12.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$7.89
-$5.57
-41.4%
$7.43
-$6.03
-44.8%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.08
-$9.38
-69.7%
$3.74
-$9.72
-72.2%
$0.34
8.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-12|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:16.444156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.046930468749999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4875,
"optimistic_value": 9.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:24.636000Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.043227370999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.077,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:32.278811Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4311574b36e",
"realistic_value": 13.769,
"optimistic_value": 13.58,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Red Astor",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:45.660011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4311574b36e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b60d3982f423",
"realistic_value": 23.12,
"optimistic_value": 20.32,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Firefight",
"conservative_value": 17.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:36.537583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b60d3982f423.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-896626717e7c",
"realistic_value": 39.112,
"optimistic_value": 38.65,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader",
"conservative_value": 29.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:19.579903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-896626717e7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.030035499999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0705abcdd5df",
"realistic_value": 10.1575,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Re-Entry",
"conservative_value": 8.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.855036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0705abcdd5df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0523875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8a7c514126f7",
"realistic_value": 20.985,
"optimistic_value": 19.9,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Black Tie",
"conservative_value": 18.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Chroma 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:35.190927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8a7c514126f7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_bdcb40a7f0ede22c8b2c3f9f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "492724538181168633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:40.715847Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "516368436280195262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:14:40.715847Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-fc1505f10422",
"listing_id": "493849693292796664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Spectre (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Spectre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fc1505f10422.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:06.361072Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-b86e591b7a8e",
"listing_id": "515242588553367217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-12",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Atlas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b86e591b7a8e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:12.345994Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:12:38.073787Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:18:00.777225Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:01.898348Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:18:45.182896Z"
},
{
"price": 2.1,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "499479937455276409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:27.309063Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:02:27.309063Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-12:4+collection-set-community-33:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 8.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 8.0% $10.16 Black Tie 8.0% $8.33 Firefight 8.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +150.4% | $5.17 +24.4% | 56.0% | +55.8% | $4.16 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Re-Entry 8.0% $4.88 Ghost Crusader 8.0% $3.69 Firefight 8.0% $2.63 Black Tie 8.0% $2.62 Red Astor 8.0% $2.35 Etch Lord 12.0% $2.33 | $4.88 +126.9% | $2.34 +8.9% | 52.0% | +38.1% | $2.15 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 4.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 4.0% $10.16 Black Tie 4.0% $8.33 Firefight 4.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +206.4% | $4.25 +24.9% | 52.0% | +57.8% | $3.40 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 6.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 6.0% $10.16 Black Tie 6.0% $8.33 Firefight 6.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +174.9% | $4.71 +24.3% | 58.0% | +58.0% | $3.79 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Ghost Crusader 2.0% $10.42 Re-Entry 2.0% $10.16 Black Tie 2.0% $8.33 Firefight 2.0% $6.82 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $10.42 +228.7% | $3.78 +19.4% | 64.0% | +48.9% | $3.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Chroma 3 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Primal Saber  3.3% $18.44 Asiimov  3.3% $18.33 Fleet Flock  3.3% $16.50 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.82 | $23.51 +66.5% | $15.95 +12.9% | 70.0% | +40.8% | $14.12 | — |
The Chroma 3 Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Chantico's Fire  30.0% $214.02 Judgement of Anubis  30.0% $177.46 Inheritance  20.0% $135.61 Chrome Cannon  20.0% $64.35 | $214.02 +55.0% | $157.44 +14.1% | 60.0% | +39.1% | $138.04 | — |